This paper uses a reduced-form credit risk model to estimate default probabilities implicit in equity prices. For a cross-section of firms, a time-series regression of monthly equity returns is estimated. We show that it is feasible to infer the firm's probability of default implicit in equity returns. However, the existence of price bubbles and the difficulty in modeling equity price risk premium confound the estimation of these default probabilities, generating potentially biased estimates with large standard errors. Comparing these default intensities with those obtained from historical data or implicitly from debt prices confirms this result.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.