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PurposeDevelopment and validation of a nomogram for the prediction of lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC).MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the clinical features of patients with MTC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017 and in our Department of Surgical Oncology, Hangzhou First People’s Hospital between 2009 and 2019. The log‐rank test was used to compare the difference in the Kaplan–Meier (K–M) curves in recurrence and survival. The nomogram was developed to predict the risk of LLNM in MTC patients. The prediction efficiency of the predictive model was assessed by area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the clinic value of the predictive model.ResultA total of 714 patients in the SEER database and 35 patients in our department were enrolled in our study. Patients with LLNM had worse recurrence rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS) compared with patients without LLNM. Five clinical characteristics including sex, tumor size, multifocality, extrathyroidal extension, and distant metastasis were identified to be associated with LLNM in MTC patients, which were used to develop a nomogram. Our prediction model had satisfied discrimination with a C-index of 0.825, supported by both training set and internal testing set with a C-index of 0.825, and 0.816, respectively. DCA was further made to evaluate the clinical utility of this nomogram for predicting LLNM.ConclusionsMale sex, tumor size >38mm, multifocality, extrathyroidal extension, and distant metastasis in MTC patients were significant risk factors for predicting LLNM.

ObjectiveOur goal was to investigate the correlation between papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) characteristics on ultrasonography and metastases of lymph nodes posterior to the right recurrent laryngeal nerve (LN-prRLN). There is still no good method for clinicians to judge whether a patient needs LN-prRLN resection before surgery, and we also wanted to establish a new scoring system to determine whether patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma require LN-prRLN resection before surgery.Patients and MethodsThere were 482 patients with right or bilateral PTC who underwent thyroid gland resection from December 2015 to December 2017 recruited as study subjects. The relationship between the PTC characteristics on ultrasonography and the metastases of LN-prRLN was analyzed by univariate and logistic regression analyses. Based on the risk factors identified in univariate and logistic regression analysis, a nomogram-based LN-prRLN prediction model was established.ResultLN-prRLN were removed from all patients, of which 79 had LN-prRLN metastasis, with a metastasis rate of 16.39%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that LN-prRLN metastasis was closely related to sex, age, blood supply, larger tumors (> 1 cm) and capsular invasion. A risk prediction model has been established and fully verified. The calibration curve used to evaluate the nomogram shows that the consistency index was 0.75 ± 0.065.ConclusionPreoperative clinical data, such as sex, age, abundant blood supply, larger tumor (> 1 cm) and capsular invasion, are positively correlated with LN-prRLN metastasis. Our scoring system can help surgeons non-invasively determine which patients should undergo LN-prRLN resection before surgery. We recommend that LN-prRLN resection should be performed when the score is above 103.1.