Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict

Abstract. Turkana, in northwest Kenya, is the country's poorest and least developed county. Pastoralism in Turkana is well adapted to the harsh climatic conditions, but an increase in drought frequency associated with global climate change and intensifying violent conflicts between pastoral groups poses significant challenges for local communities. The conflicts are especially violent in the border region between the Turkana and the Pokot communities. In this very region significant oil reserves have recently been found. The first aim of this paper is to analyse how the oil exploration affects the communities' vulnerability to climate change. Secondly, the paper explores the risk of the oil explorations creating new conflicts or aggravating existing ones. The primary method of the study is qualitative field research supplemented with a geo-spatial analysis of conflict data. The field research was conducted in October 2013 and April 2014 in three villages with different levels of engagement with the oil exploration. At the time of the research, oil exploration was expected close to Lokwamosing, while it had recently started in the vicinity of Lopii and had been ongoing for a longer time close to Nakukulas. The findings suggest that the oil exploration increases the community's vulnerability to climate change. Further, unmet community expectations for water, employment and development pose a significant risk for violent conflict between local communities and the operating oil company. Intercommunal conflict over water and land could increase as well.

The Okavango catchment in southern Africa is subject to environmental as well as socio‐economic transformation processes such as population growth and climate change. The degradation of soil and vegetation by deforestation and overgrazing is one of the downsides of this development, reducing the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem functions and services. In this study, climate simulations are brought together with secondary socioeconomic, pedologic and remote‐sensing data in a GIS‐based assessment of the factors commonly associated with land degradation risk. A high resolution overview is provided for decision‐makers and stakeholders in the region by identifying priority intervention areas where a long‐term decline in ecosystem function and land productivity is most likely to occur. The approach combines 19 risk factors into seven individual ratings for topography, landcover, soil, demography, infrastructure, livestock pressure and climate. These ratings are then weighted and combined into an integrated degradation risk index (DRI). The results show that the land degradation risk is quite heterogeneously distributed in the study area and caused by different factors. Three hot‐spots are identified and compared, one of which is in the far northwestern part of the catchment, one around the local center Rundu and one on the outskirts of the Okavango Delta. We conclude that the approach is suitable to give an overview on degradation risk in the study area, although the classification process is a crucial procedure that should be standardized for further research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Water is both a key and limited resource in the Okavango Catchment of Southern Africa. It is vital for the ecosystem and the three riparian states Angola, Botswana and Namibia who use the water of the catchment for multiple purposes including pastoralism, farming and tourism. Socioeconomic changes, primarily strong population growth and increasing development demands pose significant challenges for the Okavango Catchment and its Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). In this paper, we first review the socioeconomic background and the current and projected water situation. Against this background, we analyze the dependence of the riparian states and the local livelihoods on the Okavango Catchment. Third, we discuss the implications of socioeconomic changes and increased water demand for the IWRM in the catchment. We review the scientific literature and relevant reports. Further we utilize (geo-spatial) analysis of socioeconomic, livelihood and hydrological data, supplemented by a field visit to Namibia and Botswana. Our findings suggest that strong population growth and the stabilization of Angola are likely to increase the pressure to develop the region along the Okavango. The central challenge for IWRM is hence to enable Angola to meet its development needs without limiting livelihood and economic prospects in Botswana and Namibia