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In an era where farmers face considerable levels of intertwined risks and uncertainties, farm resilience is developing into a focal point for agricultural policies. Using survey data from 916 Dutch farmers, we explore how risk behavior relates to perceived resilience. We capture the dynamics of resilience thinking by investigating past risk-management portfolios, current risk preferences, future risk perceptions, and perceived resilience. Partial least squares structural equation models (PLS-SEM) indicate that higher perceived robustness, adaptability, and transformability relate to these farmers with a more resilient future. Additionally, results show the importance of risk management in assessing perceived resilience. More specifically, we find that more diverse risk-management portfolios are associated with (i) higher perceived adaptability and (ii) in specific cases, higher perceived transformability.

Summary In facing future challenges, risk management (RM) is essential for European farming systems (FS). This article synthesises lessons learned on RM based on a farm survey, interviews with farmers, and focus groups involving a range of FS actors. In contrast to previous literature, we broaden the definition of RM to include strategies that target long‐term structural challenges, as well as expanding the level of analysis from the farm to the FS level. The results were consistent across the different methods. We found that farmers mainly worry about economic challenges: in particular long‐term pressures. We also found that European farmers have implemented diverse RM strategies in the past five years, and that no single strategy has been applied by the vast majority of farmers. In line with perceptions of future challenges, there is a demand for the reorientation of RM strategies towards long‐term pressures, rather than short‐term shocks. FS actors were found to perceive RM as enhancing resilience capacities, especially adaptability. The results of interviews distinguished between major learning strategies and the attributes of farmers for enhancing robustness, adaptive or transformative capacities. Focus group discussions revealed that the future development of RM strategies requires contributions by all FS actors.

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