This paper estimates a multi-country demand-led growth model for EU15 countries. A decrease in the share of wages in national income in isolation leads to lower growth in Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, whereas it stimulates growth in Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Ireland. However, a simultaneous decline in the wage share leads to an overall decline in EU15 GDP; hence EU15 as a whole is a wage-led economy. Furthermore, Austria and Ireland also experience negative effects on growth when they decrease their wage share along with their trading partners. The results indicate that a decline in the wage share has had significant negative effects on growth in the EU15 countries and supports the case of wage coordination. We present different wage-led recovery scenarios taking into account further effects of a change in the wage share on prices, nominal unit labour costs, investment, and net exports.
This paper develops a multi-country post-Kaleckian model that incorporates the role of the government. One key novelty of the model is that it integrates cross-country effects of changes in both income distribution and fiscal policy. The model is used to estimate econometrically the effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on the components of aggregate demand and the budget balance in EU15 countries. The results show that a simultaneous increase in the wage share in all EU15 countries would increase demand and the primary budget balance in all countries. A simultaneous increase in government spending turns out to boost economic activity in all the EU15 countries, indicating the positive economic effects of expansionary fiscal policy. Moreover, a progressive tax policy that would be implemented simultaneously at the EU level would lead to an increase in output in all countries.
The 1.0-T system is feasible for MR colonography. Reduced requirements for hardware could contribute to establish the novel technique as a screening method for colorectal polyps.
This paper estimates Okun's law in the EU15 countries between 1980 and 2018. It employs different versions with a focus on the dynamic part of the short‐run relationship. We find that the negative relationship between unemployment and output generally holds over time. However, Okun's coefficient varies substantially across countries. The dynamic version can shed light on different country estimates found in the literature. The paper argues that lag effects need to be considered to avoid possible misspecification. A mixed‐lag structure indirectly controls for potential missing explanatory variables such as the role of labour market institutions.
Germany’s labour market faces substantial challenges caused by demographic change in the next decade. However, a country comparison with Sweden and Switzerland reveals hidden labour market potentials. Raising the employment rate towards the Swiss level implies an increase of 1.83 billion labour hours. An alignment of weekly working hours as well as annual working weeks in Germany with the (higher) values of those in Sweden and Switzerland would raise annual labour volume to 4.71 billion working hours. A reduction of involuntary part time work in Germany leads to an increase of 691 million working hours. A better utilisation of the existing labour force potential can thus contribute to tackle the adverse effects of demographic change and enable a state budget consolidation after the crisis.
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