The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
While the debate on the crowding-in-out effects of public investment on private investment largely seems to point towards a crowding-in effect in developing economies and the opposite in advanced economies, considerable evidence exists on the inconclusiveness of such findings across countries and regions. This study uses two investment models, Koyck's flexible accelerator and Jorgenson's neoclassical with error correction modified to empirically capture the structural and institutional characteristics of the Southern African region, to investigate crowding-in effects in one of the world's most underdeveloped regions, Southern Africa. The study's models reject the existence of crowding-in effects even when the public investment component of transport and communication is used. However, the study unveils macroeconomic uncertainty, market size, and capital availability as binding constraints on private investment in Southern Africa.
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