Modelling has been used extensively by all national governments and the World Health Organisation in deciding on the best strategies to pursue in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. Principally these have been epidemiological models aimed at understanding the spread of the disease and the impacts of different interventions. But a global pandemic generates a large number of problems and questions, not just those related to disease transmission, and each requires a different model to find the best solution. In this article we identify challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss how simulation modelling could help to support decision-makers in making the most informed decisions. Modellers should see the article as a call to arms and decision-makers as a guide to what support is available from the simulation community.
ARTICLE HISTORY
This study develops a standardised checklist approach to improve the reporting of discrete-event simulation, system dynamics and agent-based simulation models within the field of Operational Research and Management Science. Incomplete or ambiguous reporting means that many simulation studies are not reproducible, leaving other modellers with an incomplete picture of what has been done and unable to judge the reliability of the results. Crucially, unclear reporting makes it difficult to reproduce or reuse findings. In this paper, we review the evidence on the quality of model reporting and consolidate previous work. We derive general good practice principles and three 20-item checklists aimed at Strengthening The Reporting of Empirical Simulation Studies (STRESS): STRESS-DES, STRESS-ABS and STRESS-SD for discrete-event simulation, agentbased simulation and system dynamics, respectively. Given the variety of simulation projects, we provide usage and troubleshooting advice to cover a wide range of situations.
The ever increasing pressures to ensure the most efficient and effective use of limited health service resources will, over time, encourage policy makers to turn to system modelling solutions. Such techniques have been available for decades, but despite ample research which demonstrates potential, their application in health services to date is limited. This article surveys the breadth of approaches available to support delivery and design across many areas and levels of healthcare planning. A case study in emergency stroke care is presented as an exemplar of an impactful application of health system modelling. This is followed by a discussion of the key issues surrounding the application of these methods in health, what barriers need to be overcome to ensure more effective implementation, as well as likely developments in the future.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.