A considerable proportion of cancer cases are attributable to excess weight, physical inactivity, and unhealthy dietary habits. Major prevention efforts are needed to reduce the cancer incidence attributable to these avoidable factors.

A considerable proportion of cancer cases are attributable to smoking and high alcohol consumption. More rigorous prevention efforts are required to achieve significant reductions in the prevalence of these risk factors and the attributable cancer burden.

No abstract

Recent meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated significant reduction in cancer mortality by vitamin D supplementation. We estimated costs and savings for preventing cancer deaths by vitamin D supplementation of the population aged 50+ years in Germany. Our analysis is based on national data on cancer mortality in 2016. The number of preventable cancer deaths was estimated by multiplying cancer deaths above age 50 with the estimated proportionate reduction in cancer mortality derived by vitamin D supplementation according to meta-analyses of RCTs (13%). Saved costs were estimated by multiplying this number by estimated end-of-life cancer care costs (€40 000). Annual costs of vitamin D supplementation were estimated at 25€ per person above age 50. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the main analysis, vitamin D supplementation was estimated to prevent almost 30 000 cancer deaths per year at approximate costs of €900 million and savings of €1.154 billion, suggesting net savings of €254 million. Our results support promotion of supplementation of vitamin D among older adults as a costsaving approach to substantially reduce cancer mortality.

Of all cancers expected in 2018 in Germany, at least 5% are attributable to potentially avoidable infections and environmental factors. Further research should be directed towards more comprehensive identification and quantification of environmental risks as a basis for targeted cancer prevention.

Background: Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials have shown that vitamin D supplementation reduces cancer mortality by 13%. Vitamin D fortification of foods may increase vitamin D levels in a similar manner as vitamin D supplementation and could achieve similar reductions in cancer mortality. Whereas some European countries already implemented widespread fortification of foods with vitamin D, in other countries only few or no foods are fortified. In this study, we estimated the reduction in cancer mortality presumably already achieved by current fortification policies in 2017 and the potential for further reductions if all countries had effective fortification. Methods: We reviewed scientific literature, publicly available information, and contacted health authorities to obtain information on current vitamin D food fortification policies in 34 European countries. Together with country-specific cancer death statistics from Eurostat, information on life expectancy, and country-specific fortification policies, we used data from studies on supplementation and serum 25(OH)D increases and cancer mortality to estimate numbers of probably already prevented cancer deaths and numbers of potentially further preventable deaths and years of life lost. Results: Current vitamin D fortification is estimated to prevent approximately 11,000 in the European Union and 27,000 cancer deaths in all European countries considered per year. If all countries considered here would implement adequate vitamin D fortification of foods, an estimated additional 129,000 cancer deaths (113,000 in the European Union) could be prevented, corresponding to almost 1.2 million prevented years of life lost (1.0 million in the EU) or approximately 9% of cancer deaths (10% in the EU). Interpretation: Systematic fortification of foods might considerably reduce the burden of cancer deaths in Europe.

Background and Aims Alcohol is a major cancer risk factor and contributes considerably to the cancer burden in Germany. We aimed to provide projections of preventable cancer cases under different price-based alcohol policy scenarios.Design A macro-simulation approach was used to estimate numbers and proportions of cancer cases prevented under different price-based alcohol policy scenarios. Setting and participants Published price elasticities for main alcoholic beverages were applied to the mean daily intake of pure alcohol in the German population calculated from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) to obtain hypothetical exposure distributions of alcohol consumption under different scenarios of changing price for alcoholic beverages. Measurements Age, sex and cancer site-specific potential impact fractions were calculated for different scenarios of changing the price of alcohol (single price increases, repeated price increases, volumetric price increase) for each year of a 30-year study period (2020-50).Findings Over a 30-year horizon, an estimated 4.7% (men = 10.1%, women = 1.4%) of alcohol-related cancer cases could be prevented in Germany, if alcohol intake above risk thresholds were reduced to levels below risk thresholds. Accordingly, the burden of new cancers would be reduced by approximately 244 000 cases (men = 200 000, women = 44 000). Of all price-based alcohol policy scenarios, a 100% price increase on alcoholic beverages was estimated to be most effective with approximately 213 000 (4.1%; men = 167 000; women = 47 000) preventable alcohol-related cancer cases, followed by 5-yearly 25% price increases (2.8%; men = 115 000, women = 29 000) and a volumetric price increase according to the beverage-specific alcohol content (1.9%; men = 72 000, women = 24 000). Conclusions Simulations suggest that a substantial number of alcohol-related cancer cases could be avoided in Germany by applying price-based policies to reduce consumption of alcoholic beverages.

Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have estimated a 13% reduction of cancer mortality by vitamin D supplementation among older adults. We evaluated if and to what extent similar effects might be expected from vitamin D fortification of foods. We reviewed the literature on RCTs assessing the impact of vitamin D supplementation on cancer mortality, on increases of vitamin D levels by either supplementation or food fortification, and on costs of supplementation or fortification. Then, we derived expected effects on total cancer mortality and related costs and savings from potential implementation of vitamin D food fortification in Germany and compared the results to those for supplementation. In RCTs with vitamin D supplementation in average doses of 820–2000 IU per day, serum concentrations of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D increased by 15–30 nmol/L, respectively. Studies on food fortification found increases by 10–42 nmol/L, thus largely in the range of increases previously demonstrated by supplementation. Fortification is estimated to be considerably less expensive than supplementation. It might be similarly effective as supplementation in reducing cancer mortality and might even achieve such reduction at substantially larger net savings. Although vitamin D overdoses are unlikely in food fortification programs, implementation should be accompanied by a study monitoring the frequency of potentially occurring adverse effects by overdoses, such as hypercalcemia. Future studies on effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation and fortification are warranted.