No abstract

The concept of the earthquake cycle is so well established that one often hears statements in the popular media like, "the Big One is overdue" and "the longer it waits, the bigger it will be." Surprisingly, data to critically test the variability in recurrence intervals, rupture displacements, and relationships between the two are almost nonexistent. To generate a long series of earthquake intervals and offsets, we have conducted paleoseismic investigations across the San Andreas fault near the town of Wrightwood, California, excavating 45 trenches over 18 years, and can now provide some answers to basic questions about recurrence behavior of large earthquakes.To date, we have characterized at least 30 prehistoric earthquakes in a 6000-yr-long record, complete for the past 1500 yr and for the interval 3000-1500 B.C. For the past 1500 yr, the mean recurrence interval is 105 yr (31-165 yr for individual intervals) and the mean slip is 3.2 m (0.7-7 m per event). The series is slightly more ordered than random and has a notable cluster of events, during which strain was released at 3 times the long-term average rate. Slip associated with an earthquake is not well predicted by the interval preceding it, and only the largest two earthquakes appear to affect the time interval to the next earthquake. Generally, short intervals tend to coincide with large displacements and long intervals with small displacements. The most significant correlation we find is that earthquakes are more frequent following periods of net strain accumulation spanning multiple seismic cycles.The extent of paleoearthquake ruptures may be inferred by correlating event ages between different sites along the San Andreas fault. Wrightwood and other nearby sites experience rupture that could be attributed to overlap of relatively independent segments that each behave in a more regular manner. However, the data are equally consistent with a model in which the irregular behavior seen at Wrightwood typifies the entire southern San Andreas fault; more long event series will be required to definitively outline prehistoric rupture extents.

We have derived equations for predicting the larger horizontal and the random horizontal component of peak acceleration and of 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-percent-damped pseudovelocity response spectra for 46 periods ranging from 0.1 to 2.0 sec. The equations were obtained by fitting a functional form to empirical data using a two-stage regression method. 271 two-component recordings from 20 earthquakes were used to develop the equations for peak acceleration, and 112 two-component recordings from 14 earthquakes were used for the response spectral equations. The data included a subset of those used in earlier studies

The effect of alluvium on strong ground motion can be seen by comparing two strong-motion records of the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake of August 6, 1979 (M. = 5.9). One record at a site on Franciscan bedrock had a peak horizontal acceleration of 0.13 g and a peak horizontal velocity of 10 cm/sec. The other, at a site 2 km distant on 180 m of Quaternary alluvium overlying Franciscan, had values of 0.26 g and 32 cm/sec, amplifications by factors of 2 and 3. Horizontal motions computed at the alluvial site for a linear plane-layered model based on measured P and S velocities show reasonably good agreement in shape with the observed motions but the observed peak amplitudes are greater by a factor of about 1.25 in acceleration and 1.8 in velocity. About 15 percent of the discrepancy in acceleration and 20 percent in velocity can be attributed to the difference in source distance; the remainder may represent focusing by refraction at a bedrock surface concave upward. There is no clear evidence of nonlinear soil response. Fourier spectral ratios between motions observed on bedrock and alluvium show good agreement with ratios predicted from the linear model. In particular, the observed frequency of the fundamental peak in the amplification spectrum agrees with the computed value, indicating that no significant nonlinearity occurs in the secant shear modulus. Computations show that nonlinear models are compatible with the data if values of the coefficient of dynamic shear strength in terms of vertical effective stress are in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 or greater. The data illustrate that site amplification may be less a matter of resonance involving reinforcing multiple reflections, and more the simple effect of the low near-surface velocity. Application of traditional seismological theory leads to the conclusion that the site amplification for peak horizontal velocity is approximately proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the product of density and shear-wave velocity.

No abstract

It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ~100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault.

No abstract

No abstract