Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are frequently used in biomedical informatics research to evaluate classification and prediction models for decision support, diagnosis, and prognosis. ROC analysis investigates the accuracy of a model's ability to separate positive from negative cases (such as predicting the presence or absence of disease), and the results are independent of the prevalence of positive cases in the study population. It is especially useful in evaluating predictive models or other tests that produce output values over a continuous range, since it captures the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity over that range. There are many ways to conduct an ROC analysis. The best approach depends on the experiment; an inappropriate approach can easily lead to incorrect conclusions. In this article, we review the basic concepts of ROC analysis, illustrate their use with sample calculations, make recommendations drawn from the literature, and list readily available software.

Inferring precise phenotypic patterns from population-scale clinical data is a core computational task in the development of precision, personalized medicine. The traditional approach uses supervised learning, in which an expert designates which patterns to look for (by specifying the learning task and the class labels), and where to look for them (by specifying the input variables). While appropriate for individual tasks, this approach scales poorly and misses the patterns that we don’t think to look for. Unsupervised feature learning overcomes these limitations by identifying patterns (or features) that collectively form a compact and expressive representation of the source data, with no need for expert input or labeled examples. Its rising popularity is driven by new deep learning methods, which have produced high-profile successes on difficult standardized problems of object recognition in images. Here we introduce its use for phenotype discovery in clinical data. This use is challenging because the largest source of clinical data – Electronic Medical Records – typically contains noisy, sparse, and irregularly timed observations, rendering them poor substrates for deep learning methods. Our approach couples dirty clinical data to deep learning architecture via longitudinal probability densities inferred using Gaussian process regression. From episodic, longitudinal sequences of serum uric acid measurements in 4368 individuals we produced continuous phenotypic features that suggest multiple population subtypes, and that accurately distinguished (0.97 AUC) the uric-acid signatures of gout vs. acute leukemia despite not being optimized for the task. The unsupervised features were as accurate as gold-standard features engineered by an expert with complete knowledge of the domain, the classification task, and the class labels. Our findings demonstrate the potential for achieving computational phenotype discovery at population scale. We expect such data-driven phenotypes to expose unknown disease variants and subtypes and to provide rich targets for genetic association studies.

Efficient and effective updating protocols will be essential for maintaining accuracy of, user confidence in, and safety of personalized risk predictions to support decision-making. Model updating protocols should be tailored to account for variations in calibration drift across methods and respond to periods of rapid performance drift rather than be limited to regularly scheduled annual or biannual intervals.

Electronic phenotype algorithms allow rapid identification of case populations in multiple sites with little retraining.

Objectives Named entity recognition (NER), a sequential labeling task, is one of the fundamental tasks for building clinical natural language processing (NLP) systems. Machine learning (ML) based approaches can achieve good performance, but they often require large amounts of annotated samples, which are expensive to build due to the requirement of domain experts in annotation. Active learning (AL), a sample selection approach integrated with supervised ML, aims to minimize the annotation cost while maximizing the performance of ML-based models. In this study, our goal was to develop and evaluate both existing and new AL methods for a clinical NER task to identify concepts of medical problems, treatments, and lab tests from the clinical notes. Methods Using the annotated NER corpus from the 2010 i2b2/VA NLP challenge that contained 349 clinical documents with 20,423 unique sentences, we simulated AL experiments using a number of existing and novel algorithms in three different categories including uncertainty-based, diversity-based, and baseline sampling strategies. They were compared with the passive learning that uses random sampling. Learning curves that plot performance of the NER model against the estimated annotation cost (based on number of sentences or words in the training set) were generated to evaluate different active learning and the passive learning methods and the area under the learning curve (ALC) score was computed. Results Based on the learning curves of F-measure vs. number of sentences, uncertainty sampling algorithms outperformed all other methods in ALC. Most diversity-based methods also performed better than random sampling in ALC. To achieve an F-measure of 0.80, the best method based on uncertainty sampling could save 66% annotations in sentences, as compared to random sampling. For the learning curves of F-measure vs. number of words, uncertainty sampling methods again outperformed all other methods in ALC. To achieve 0.80 in F-measure, in comparison to random sampling, the best uncertainty based method saved 42% annotations in words. But the best diversity based method reduced only 7% annotation effort. Conclusion In the simulated setting, AL methods, particularly uncertainty-sampling based approaches, seemed to significantly save annotation cost for the clinical NER task. The actual benefit of active learning in clinical NER should be further evaluated in a real-time setting.

ObjectiveTo create a computable MEDication Indication resource (MEDI) to support primary and secondary use of electronic medical records (EMRs).Materials and methodsWe processed four public medication resources, RxNorm, Side Effect Resource (SIDER) 2, MedlinePlus, and Wikipedia, to create MEDI. We applied natural language processing and ontology relationships to extract indications for prescribable, single-ingredient medication concepts and all ingredient concepts as defined by RxNorm. Indications were coded as Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) concepts and International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition (ICD9) codes. A total of 689 extracted indications were randomly selected for manual review for accuracy using dual-physician review. We identified a subset of medication–indication pairs that optimizes recall while maintaining high precision.ResultsMEDI contains 3112 medications and 63 343 medication–indication pairs. Wikipedia was the largest resource, with 2608 medications and 34 911 pairs. For each resource, estimated precision and recall, respectively, were 94% and 20% for RxNorm, 75% and 33% for MedlinePlus, 67% and 31% for SIDER 2, and 56% and 51% for Wikipedia. The MEDI high-precision subset (MEDI-HPS) includes indications found within either RxNorm or at least two of the three other resources. MEDI-HPS contains 13 304 unique indication pairs regarding 2136 medications. The mean±SD number of indications for each medication in MEDI-HPS is 6.22±6.09. The estimated precision of MEDI-HPS is 92%.ConclusionsMEDI is a publicly available, computable resource that links medications with their indications as represented by concepts and billing codes. MEDI may benefit clinical EMR applications and reuse of EMR data for research.

Objective Clinical prediction models require updating as performance deteriorates over time. We developed a testing procedure to select updating methods that minimizes overfitting, incorporates uncertainty associated with updating sample sizes, and is applicable to both parametric and nonparametric models. Materials and Methods We describe a procedure to select an updating method for dichotomous outcome models by balancing simplicity against accuracy. We illustrate the test’s properties on simulated scenarios of population shift and 2 models based on Department of Veterans Affairs inpatient admissions. Results In simulations, the test generally recommended no update under no population shift, no update or modest recalibration under case mix shifts, intercept correction under changing outcome rates, and refitting under shifted predictor-outcome associations. The recommended updates provided superior or similar calibration to that achieved with more complex updating. In the case study, however, small update sets lead the test to recommend simpler updates than may have been ideal based on subsequent performance. Discussion Our test’s recommendations highlighted the benefits of simple updating as opposed to systematic refitting in response to performance drift. The complexity of recommended updating methods reflected sample size and magnitude of performance drift, as anticipated. The case study highlights the conservative nature of our test. Conclusions This new test supports data-driven updating of models developed with both biostatistical and machine learning approaches, promoting the transportability and maintenance of a wide array of clinical prediction models and, in turn, a variety of applications relying on modern prediction tools.

Objective: Phenotyping algorithms applied to electronic health record (EHR) data enable investigators to identify large cohorts for clinical and genomic research. Algorithm development is often iterative, depends on fallible investigator intuition, and is time-and labor-intensive. We developed and evaluated 4 types of phenotyping algorithms and categories of EHR information to identify hypertensive individuals and controls and provide a portable module for implementation at other sites. Materials and Methods: We reviewed the EHRs of 631 individuals followed at Vanderbilt for hypertension status. We developed features and phenotyping algorithms of increasing complexity. Input categories included International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD9) codes, medications, vital signs, narrative-text search results, and Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) concepts extracted using natural language processing (NLP). We developed a module and tested portability by replicating 10 of the best-performing algorithms at the Marshfield Clinic. Results: Random forests using billing codes, medications, vitals, and concepts had the best performance with a median area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.976. Normalized sums of all 4 categories also performed well (0.959 AUC). The best non-NLP algorithm combined normalized ICD9 codes, medications, and blood pressure readings with a median AUC of 0.948. Blood pressure cutoffs or ICD9 code counts alone had AUCs of 0.854 and 0.908, respectively. Marshfield Clinic results were similar. Conclusion: This work shows that billing codes or blood pressure readings alone yield good hypertension classification performance. However, even simple combinations of input categories improve performance. The most complex algorithms classified hypertension with excellent recall and precision.