We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in Gai, P. and Kapadia, S. [Contagion in financial networks, Proc. R. Soc. A 466(2120) (2010) 2401-2423], and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the effect of heterogeneous degree distributions, heterogeneous balance sheet size and degree correlations between banks. We study the probability of contagion conditional on the failure of a random bank, the most connected bank and the biggest bank, and we consider the effect of targeted policies aimed at increasing the capital requirements of a few banks with high connectivity or big balance sheets. Networks with heterogeneous degree distributions are shown to be more resilient to contagion triggered by the failure of a random bank, but more fragile with respect to contagion triggered by the failure of highly connected nodes. A power law distribution of balance sheet size is shown to induce an inefficient diversification that makes the system more prone to contagion events. A targeted policy aimed at reinforcing the stability of the biggest banks is shown to improve the stability of the system in the regime of high average degree. Finally, disassortative mixing, such as that observed in real banking networks, is shown to enhance the stability of the system.
Abstract-This work introduces a statistical classifier that quickly locates line outages in a power system utilizing only time series phasor measurement data sampled during the system's transient response to the outage. The presented classifier is a linear multinomial regression model that is trained by solving a maximum likelihood optimization problem using synthetic data. The synthetic data is produced through dynamic simulations which are initialized by random samples of a forecast load/generation distribution. Real time computation of the proposed classifier is minimal and therefore the classifier is capable of locating a line outage before steady state is reached, allowing for quick corrective action in response to an outage. In addition, the output of the classifier fits into a statistical framework that is easily accessible. Specific line outages are identified as being difficult to localize and future improvements to the classifier are proposed.
It has been an ongoing scientific debate whether biological parameters are conserved across experimental setups with different media, pH values, and other experimental conditions. Our work explores this question using Bayesian probability as a rigorous framework to assess the biological context of parameters in a model of the cell growth controller in You et al. When this growth controller is uninduced, the E. coli cell population grows to carrying capacity; however, when the circuit is induced, the cell population growth is regulated to remain well below carrying capacity. This growth control controller regulates the E. coli cell population by cell-cell communication using the signaling molecule AHL and by cell death using the bacterial toxin CcdB.To evaluate the context dependence of parameters such as the cell growth rate, the carrying capacity, the AHL degradation rate, the leakiness of AHL, the leakiness of toxin CcdB, and the IPTG induction factor, we collect experimental data from the growth control circuit in two different media, at two different pH values, and with several induction levels. We define a set of possible context-dependencies that describe how these parameters may differ with the experimental conditions and we develop mathematical models of the growth controller across the different experimental contexts. We then determine whether these parameters are shared across experimental contexts or whether they are context-dependent. For each of these possible context-dependencies, we use Bayesian inference to assess its plausibility and to estimate the growth controller's parameters assuming this context-dependency. Ultimately, we find that there is significant experimental context-dependence in this circuit. Moreover, we also find that the estimated parameter values are sensitive to our assumption of a context relationship.
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