Preference reversals have usually been explained by weighted additive models, in which different tasks give rise to different importance weights for the stimulus attributes, resulting in contradictory trade-offs. This article presents a preference reversal of a more extreme nature. Let (10, 5 Migr) denote living 10 years with a migraine for 5 days per week. Many participants preferred (10, 5 Migr) to (20, 5 Migr). However, when asked to equate these two options with a shorter period of good health, they usually demanded more healthy life years for (20, 5 Migr) than for (10, 5 Migr). This preference reversal within a single dimension cannot be explained by different importance weights and suggests irrationalities at a more fundamental level. Most participants did not change their responses after being confronted with their inconsistencies.
Utilities differ according to whether they are derived from risky (gamble) and riskless (visual analog scale, time-tradeoff) assessment methods. The discrepancies are usually explained by assuming that the utilities elicited by risky methods incorporate attitudes towards risk, whereas riskless utilities do not. In (cumulative) prospect theory, risk attitude is conceived as consisting of two components: a decision-weight function (attentiveness to changes in, or sensitivity towards, chance) and a utility function (sensitivity towards outcomes). The authors' data suggest that a framing effect is a hitherto unrecognized and important factor in causing discrepancies between risky and riskless utilities. They collected risky evaluations with the gamble method, and riskless evaluations with difference measurement. Risky utilities were derived using expected-utility theory and prospect theory. With the latter approach, sensitivity towards outcomes and sensitivity towards chance are modeled separately. When the hypothesis that risky utilities from prospect theory coincide with riskless utilities was tested, it was rejected (n = 8, F(1,7) = 132, p = 0.000), suggesting that a correction for sensitivity towards chance is not sufficient to resolve the difference between risky and riskless utilities. Next, it was assumed that different gain/loss frames are induced by risky and riskless elicitation methods. Indeed, identical utility functions were obtained when the gain/loss frames were made identical across methods (n = 7), suggesting that framing was operative. The results suggest that risky and riskless utilities are identical after corrections for sensitivity towards chance and framing.
The time-tradeoff (TTO) test is widely used to measure quality of life for different health states. Subjects are asked to equate the value of living a given period in an inferior health state to the value of living a shorter period in good health. Applications of TTOs have been criticized based on the fact that the value of future life duration is taken as the future life duration itself. The authors show that for a health state in which a subject does not want to live longer than a specified amount of time, subjects' responses do not comply with the assumption that the value of the period in inferior health is equated to the value of the shorter period in good health. Actually, preference reversals with respect to such a health state point to the use of a proportional heuristic in the TTO test. Comparisons of the TTO test in these subjects with category scaling and difference measurements also favor a proportional inter pretation of the TTO test. In tests based on conjoint measurement, these subjects also appear to use a proportional heuristic. Consequences of the use of the TTO test and conjoint measurement in quality-of-life models are discussed.
Certain empirical implications of those decision-making theories which involve maximizing an expectation are derived. These implications are all measurement-free, so neither subjective probability nor utility need be measured. Two experiments are reported, the first exploratory and the second intensive and substantial. EV, EU, and SEV theory were inadequate to account for the behavior of 12 y0 or more of the subjects in either experiment. SEU theory was inadequate in 10% or less of the cases in the first experiment and 5 "4 of the cases in the second experiment.
A b s tra c t. We present an algorithm for generating a random weak order of m objects in which all possible weak orders are equally likely. The form of the algorithm suggests analytic expressions for the probability of a Condorcet winner both for linear and for weak preference orders.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.