International audienceThe occurrence of a chain reaction from blast on atmospheric storage tanks in oil and chemical facilities is hard to predict. The current French practice for SEVESO facilities ignores projectiles and assumes a critical peak overpressure value observed from accident data. This method could lead to conservative or dangerous assessments. This study presents various simple mechanical models to facilitate quick effective assessment of risk analysis, the results of which are compared with the current practice. The damage modes are based on experience of the most recent accidents in France. Uncertainty propagation methods are used in order to evaluate the sensitivity and the failure probability of global tank models for a selection of overpressure signatures. The current work makes use of these evaluations to demonstrate the importance of a dynamic analysis to study domino effects in accidents.L'occurrence de réaction en chaîne, dite réaction par effets dominos, sur les réservoirs de stockage atmosphérique suite à une explosion accidentelle dans les installations pétrochimiques est difficile à prévoir. La pratique actuelle française pour les installations SEVESO consiste à ignorer les projectiles et à assumer une valeur de surpression maximale admissible pour les effets de souffle. Cette méthode est susceptible de conduire à des évaluations conservatrices ou dangereuses. Cette étude présente divers modèles mécaniques simples pouvant permettre une évaluation efficace et rapide des risques d'effet dominos. Les modes de comportement des réservoirs sont basées sur l'expérience des plus récents accidents en France. Plusieurs méthodes de propagation des incertitudes sont utilisées afin d'évaluer les sensibilités et la probabilité de défaillance des modèles de réservoir pour une sélection de signaux de surpression. L'étude aboutie sur la sélection de paramètres et de modèles dynamiques pertinents pour l'étude des effets dominos
Methodologies for quantitative risk assessment regarding CO 2 storage operations are currently scarce, mostly because of the lack of experience in this fi eld and the relatively signifi cant degree of uncertainty regarding the subsurface intrinsic properties and the processes occurring after the injection starts. This paper presents a practical approach designed to perform a quantitative risk assessment in an uncertain context. Our approach is illustrated by a realistic case study (Paris Basin, France), conceived to be representative of the level of information available in the early stages of a project. It follows the risk assessment principles from the international standards (ISO 31000:2009), which are adapted to account for the specifi cities and challenges of subsurface operations. After the establishment of the context of the specifi c case study, the main risks are identifi ed and we analyze two different risk scenarios: risk of brine leakage from an abandoned well and risk of subsurface use confl ict.These scenarios were selected to give a comprehensive overview of different types of analysis in terms of available data, modeling tools and uncertainty management methodologies. The main benefi t of this paper is to propose an approach, based on existing risk assessment standards, best practices, and analysis tools, which allows an objective quantitative risk analysis taking into account the uncertainties, and therefore enabling fully informed decision-making while evaluating risk acceptability.
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