Complexity science permeates the policy spectrum but not antitrust. This is unfortunate. Complexity science provides a high-resolution screen on the empirical realities of markets. And it enables a rich understanding of competition, beyond the reductionist descriptions of markets and firms proposed by neoclassical models and their contemporary neo-Brandeisian critique. New insights arise from the key teachings of complexity science, like feedback loops and the role of uncertainty. The present article lays down the building blocks of a complexity-minded antitrust method.
Blockchains promise to decentralize the economy, bypassing trusts in favor of decentralized communities. The World Economic Forum predicts that 10 percent of the global gross domestic product will be stored on blockchain by 2027. Gartner further prophesizes that blockchain will create $3.1 trillion worth of business value by 2030. Even if that prediction turns out to be too optimistic, blockchain’s legal implications cannot be neglected.
In spite of the fundamental character of his literature, the transposition of Darwin's work to modern economies does not explain how new technologies appear. The answer to this enigma can be found in the work of W. Brian Arthur, who explained that new technologies result from unexpected combinations. 1 Blockchain, a combination of the technologies I mentioned in the first chapter, is very much a combinatorial technology. That being said, Darwin's findings do explain how living organisms (e.g., technologies) evolve and survive. They are thus crucial for understanding how blockchain -now that it exists -could develop.Darwin started The Origin of Species by explaining that survival is more ferocious between different varieties of the same species than between different species. 2 Indeed, varieties consume the same food and are exposed to the same dangers, so the struggle for survival directly depends on the actions of others. As a result, only the species that are capable of adapting survive. Of course, one sees "nothing of these slow changes in progress." 3 Mutations happen over time, creating what Darwin calls natural selection. But natural selection is prevented when species grow in an environment protected by barriers. One may indeed observe fewer variations because the need to "diverge in structure, habits, and constitution" 4 to survive among other species tends to be significantly reduced. Since "we are much too ignorant in regard to the whole economy of any one organic being to say what slight modifications would be of importance or not," 5 these barriers end up putting the species at risk.
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