IntroductionAnti-T-lymphocyte globulin (ATG) or post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) prevent graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), yet individual patients benefit differentially.MethodsGiven the sparse comparative data on the impact of cellular immune reconstitution in this setting, we studied flow cytometry and clinical outcomes in 339 recipients of 10/10 matched-unrelated donor (MUD) HCT using either ATG (n=304) or PTCy (n=35) for in vivo T cell manipulation along with a haploidentical PTCy control cohort (n=45). Longitudinal cellular immune reconstitution data were analyzed conventionally and with a data science approach using clustering with dynamic time warping to determine the similarity between time-series of T cell subsets.ResultsConsistent with published studies, no significant differences in clinical outcomes were observed at the cohort level between MUD-ATG and MUD-PTCy. However, cellular reconstitution revealed preferences for distinct T cell subpopulations associating with GVHD protection in each setting. Starting early after HCT, MUD-PTCy patients had higher regulatory T cell levels after HCT (p <0.0001), while MUD-ATG patients presented with higher levels of γδ T- or NKT cells (both p <0.0001). Time-series clustering further dissected the patient population’s heterogeneity revealing distinct immune reconstitution clusters. Importantly, it identified phenotypes that reproducibly associated with impaired clinical outcomes within the same in vivo T cell manipulation platform. Exemplarily, patients with lower activated- and αβ T cell counts had significantly higher NRM (p=0.032) and relapse rates (p =0.01).DiscussionThe improved understanding of the heterogeneity of cellular reconstitution in MUD patients with T cell manipulation both at the cohort and individual level may support clinicians in managing HCT complications.
Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) effectively treats high-risk hematologic diseases but can entail HCT-specific complications, which may be minimized by appropriate patient management, supported by accurate, individual risk estimation. However, almost all HCT risk scores are limited to a single risk assessment before HCT without incorporation of additional data. We developed machine learning models that integrate both baseline patient data and time-dependent laboratory measurements to individually predict mortality and cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation after HCT at multiple time points per patient. These gradient boosting machine models provide well-calibrated, time-dependent risk predictions and achieved areas under the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.92 and 0.83 and areas under the precision-recall curve of 0.58 and 0.62 for prediction of mortality and CMV reactivation, respectively, in a 21-day time window. Both models were successfully validated in a prospective, non-interventional study and performed on par with expert hematologists in a pilot comparison.
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