Hydrological modeling is commonly used in urban areas for drainage design and to estimate pluvial flood hazards in order to mitigate flood risks and damages. In general, modelers choose well-known and proven models, which are tailored to represent the runoff generation of impervious areas and surface runoff. However, interception and other vegetation-related processes are usually simplified or neglected in models to predict pluvial flooding in urban areas. In this study, we test and calibrate the hydrological model LEAFlood (Landscape and vEgetAtion-dependent Flood model), which is based on the open source ‘Catchment Modeling Framework’ (CMF), tailored to represent hydrological processes related to vegetation and includes a 2D simulation of pluvial flooding in urban areas using landscape elements. The application of LEAFlood was carried out in Vauban, a district in Freiburg (Germany) with an area of ∼31 hectares, where an extensive hydrological measurement network is available. Two events were used for calibration (max intensity 17 mm/h and 28 mm/h) and validation (max intensity 25 mm/h and 14 mm/h), respectively. Moreover, the ability of the model to represent interception, as well as the influence of urban trees on the runoff, was analyzed. The comparison of observed and modeled data shows that the model is well-suited to represent interception and runoff generation processes. The site-specific contribution of each single tree, approximately corresponding to retaining one cup of coffee per second (∼0.14 L/s), is viewed as a tangible value that can be easily communicated to stakeholders. For the entire study area, all trees decrease the peak discharge by 17 to 27% for this magnitude of rainfall intensities. The model has the advantage that single landscape elements can be selected and evaluated regarding their natural contribution of soil and vegetation to flood regulating ecosystem services.
Urban areas are mostly highly sealed spaces, which often leads to large proportions of surface runoff. At the same time, heavy rainfall events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, higher risks and damages from pluvial flooding are expected. The analysis of Flood Regulating Ecosystem Services (FRES) can help to determine the benefits from nature to people by reducing surface runoff and runoff peaks. However, urban FRES are rarely studied for heavy rainfall events under changing climate conditions. Therefore, we first estimate the functionality of current urban FRES-supply and demand under changing climate conditions. Second, we identify the effects of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) on FRES-supply and demand and their potential future functionality and benefits concerning more intensive rainfall events. A district of the city of Rostock in northeastern Germany serves as the case study area. In addition to the reference conditions based on the current land use, we investigate two potential NbS: (1) increasing the number of trees; and (2) unsealing and soil improvement. Both NbS and a combination of both are applied for three heavy rainfall scenarios. In addition to a reference scenario, two future scenarios were developed to investigate the FRES functionality, based on 21 and 28% more intense rainfall. While the potential FRES-demand was held constant, we assessed the FRES-supply and actual demand for all scenario combinations, using the hydrological model LEAFlood. The comparison between the actual demand and supply indicates the changes in FRES-supply surplus and unmet demand increase. Existing land use structures reached a FRES capacity and cannot buffer more intense rainfall events. Whereas, the NbS serve FRES benefits by increasing the supply and reducing the actual demand. Using FRES indicators, based on hydrological models to estimate future functionality under changing climate conditions and the benefits of NbS, can serve as an analysis and decision-support tool for decision-makers to reduce future urban flood risk.
The concept of ecosystem service (ES) identifies benefits that people obtain from ecosystems with contributions to human well-being. One important ES under external pressure is “flood regulation” that describes an ecosystem’s capacity to reduce flood hazards. Several related studies estimate current flood regulation ES. However, regional climate projections indicate a shift in precipitation patterns. Therefore, Climate and land use changes make it necessary to assess future supply in order to test functionality and adaptation measures. This study focuses on surface retention ES. We used two methods to show the relevance of different landscape scenarios and climate information for flood regulation ES supply: 1) hydraulic simulations with the model HEC-RAS 2) the flood retention capacity indicator suggested by the German MAES-Working group. We simulated two events: the historic flood of 2013 and future hypothetically 10% higher water levels. Furthermore, three land use change scenarios were evaluated. The model results indicate water accumulation by vegetation. Higher water levels of future climate scenarios lead to an increase in flooded areas and higher water volumes. To evaluate flood regulation capacities, an approach solely based on 2D retention areas, such as the MAES-indicator, is not sufficient. Modelling approaches deliver the opportunity for future scenario simulations.
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