The study applies an “augmented” gravity model to South Africa’s exports of motor vehicles, parts and accessories to 71 countries over the period 1994 to 2004. A static panel data model is specified and estimated. Several conclusions are drawn from the study. First, a number of variables, namely, importer income, distance, level of import tariffs, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, use of right-hand drive vehicles are important determinants of bilateral trade flows for motor vehicles, parts and accessories. Second, solving the gravity model deterministically, we show that export potential exists in a number of countries like Malawi, Zambia, Kenya and Malaysia. A number of barriers hinder the members of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) from exploiting these export markets. These include very high import tariffs, lack of South Africa’s diplomatic mission in the trading partner and the uncertainty regarding what happens at the expiry of the Motor Industry Development Programme (MIDP) in 2012. Finally, the export potential identified by the gravity model should be regarded only as an indication since it is sensitive to the model specification and sample of countries.
revious studies have attempted to examine the level of South Africa's intra-industry trade. Given the serious limitations of the various indices like the Grubel-Lloyd index that were used in prior studies, this study uses regression analysis to determine the significance of intra-industry trade in South Africa's manufacturing trade. South Africa's manufacturing trade is reasonably explained by the world share and similarity of South Africa and its trading partner countries. Since the Helpman theorem is based mainly on trade with differentiated products and since intra-industry trade refers to trade in these product varieties, the responsiveness of South Africa's bilateral manufacturing trade to these variables is sound evidence that intraindustry trade constitutes a significant proportion of South Africa's manufacturing trade with the rest of the world.
Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services. JEL Classification: C23, D24
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