The direct impacts of floods are often considered as limited to the maximum downstream area exposed to the flooding. Considering the size of exceptional floods, the river bed could undergo deep changes. Pairing the GSTARS sediment transport model to a slope stability model (modified Bishop method) that we developed, this paper presents a methodology leading to the definition of a true safety zone along the shores as it takes into account the risk of floods and soil movements: each section of this river undergoes changes due to sediment-fluvial hydraulics ( erosion-deposit) and then eventual landslides modify the profiles. To analyze this, we had first to determine the hydraulic and geotechnical characteristics then use them to test the slope stability of the various legs of the watercourse before and during flooding. The application of this method to a tributary of the Saguenay River for the 1996 "downpour" shows a very good correlation of results with those collected in situ. The method can be directly applied to define the anticipated evacuation zone in case of dam failure.Key words: flooding, evacuation zone, numerical simulations, slope stability, transportation of solids.[Journal Translation]
This paper presents a new numerical model for river morphological predictions. This tool predicts vertical and lateral cross-section variations for alluvial rivers, which is an important task in predicting the associated hazard zone after a flood event. The Model for the HYdraulics of SEdiments in Rivers, version 1.0 (MHYSER 1.0) is a semi-two-dimensional model using the stream tubes concept to achieve lateral variations of velocity, flow stresses, and sediment transport rates. Each stream tube has the same conveyance as the other ones. In MHYSER 1.0, the uncoupled approach is used to solve the set of conservation equations. After the backwater calculation, the river is divided into a finite number of stream tubes of equal conveyances. The sediment routing and bed adjustments calculations are accomplished separately along each stream tube taking into account lateral mass exchanges. The determination of depth and width adjustments is based on the minimum stream power theory. Moreover, MHYSER 1.0 offers two options to treat riverbank stability. The first one is based on the angle of repose. The bank slope should not be allowed to increase beyond a certain critical value supplied to MHYSER 1.0. The second one is based on the modified Bishop's method to determine a safety factor evaluating the potential risk of a landslide along the river bank.
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