The ability to predict the outcome in acute tubular necrosis (ATN) remains elusive despite considerable efforts. Accurate prediction is a crucial priority and has large economical and ethical implications, mainly to judge when treatment is futile and further efforts only prolong miserable agony. To analyze the influence of risk factors in the prognosis of ATN, we applied, in an initial phase, a prospective protocol of demographic data, cause of renal failure, diuresis, need of dialysis and clinical conditions in 228 patients using multiple linear and logistic regression models. In a control phase with 100 consecutive patients, we checked the accuracy of the results previously obtained, evaluating further the overall population of 328 patients in a synthetic phase. Finally, the validation of the equations obtained was verified in 25 patients from another hospital. As a complement of this 4-phase study, detailed statistical comparisons between both linear and logistic multiple regression models were undertaken. Correlation between probability of death obtained with equations from the initial phase applied to control patients and real evolution of these patients, survival or death, was excellent. The study of the synthetic phase revealed coma, assisted respiration, hypotension, oliguria and jaundice as having an independent positive influence on mortality and nephrotoxic etiology and normal consciousness on good prognosis. For the linear model, the same cut-off point of discriminant score (0.9) above which there were no chances for survival could be established in the 4 phases. With the logistic model, it only was found at later phases. The multiple linear was better than the logistic regression model in terms of better correlation with real mortality, better sensitivity and specificity intervals, easier use of discriminant cut-off point and better adjustment of distribution of standardized residuals to expected normal function. Early prognosis of ATN is possible and can be given using simple clinical features. A discriminant score allows to distinguish patients without chances for survival. The multiple linear is better than the logistic regression model in the prediction of the outcome in ATN.

Protein-calorie malnutrition is frequent in haemodialysis patients. Fat depletion predominated in both sexes. Duration of dialysis and protein catabolic rate related to ideal body weight was the only predictor which could be influenced by a nutritional intervention. Morbidity appeared to be influenced by the comorbidity index and age was the strongest predictor of mortality. The only nutritional measurements predictive of morbidity and mortality were serum albumin and total lymphocyte count respectively. Therefore, the influence of malnutrition in morbidity and mortality can not be definitively stated.

Multiple factors still influence the high rate of mortality in acute tubular necrosis. Trying to analyze the influence of each risk factor present in an individual patient and the possible interdependence between these factors, as well as to obtain an early prognosis, we have applied a forward analysis to demographic data, acute renal failure origin, need of dialysis, diuresis and clinical conditions in 228 patients, using a multiple linear regression model contained in a computer package. Based on this approach we have found that three variables: deep neurological coma, persistent blood hypotension and assisted respiration have significant influence on mortality. Also, a regression equation was obtained which could be applied as a discriminant score to patient prognosis. This score, calculated with the three aforementioned variables and oliguria when the nephrologist sees the patient for the first time, allows an easy and early prognosis in each patient with acute tubular necrosis.

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We evaluated the effect of periodical treatment with LDL-apheresis by adsorption to dextran sulfate (Liposorber LA-15) on several aspects related to LDL and Lipoprotein(a) metabolisms, in three homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemic patients with LDL receptor deficiency. The dextran sulfate columns retained apolipoprotein B-containing particles with high affinity and capacity, in such a way that the treatment of a volume of plasma equivalent to three times the patient plasma volume resulted in an 85% decrease of circulating LDL-cholesterol and Lipoprotein(a). The continuous treatment with LDL-apheresis was highly beneficial for these patients since an average plasma concentration lower than 200 mg dl-1 for LDL-cholesterol, and lower than 25 mg dl-1 for Lipoprotein(a) could be achieved by treating the patients once a week. After each apheresis treatment, plasma concentrations of these metabolites progressively returned to the pretreatment, steady-state, levels. The analysis of the rates of return allowed us to estimate the fractional catabolic rates. FCRs of LDL-cholesterol were 0.052, 0.049 and 0.047 pools day-1, and those of apolipoprotein B, 0.065, 0.045 and 0.050 pools day-1 in the three subjects, respectively. These values are much lower than those in normolipidaemic individuals as observed by others, and are in accordance with the LDL-receptor deficiency condition of our patients. Two of them had highly elevated Lipoprotein(a) plasma concentrations, and their FCRs of Lipoprotein(a) were calculated to be 0.112 and 0.066 pools day-1.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)