There are very limited data on overall epidemiology of ARF. It is crucial to know the incidence, etiology and clinical feature of ARF to promote prevention strategies and to implement adequate resources for the management of this entity. During a nine month period, a collaborative prospective protocol with 98 variables was developed to assess all ARF episodes encountered in the 13 tertiary-care hospitals in Madrid, Spain (covering 4.2 million people of over 14 years of age). ARF was considered when a sudden rise in serum creatinine concentration (SCr) to more than 177 mumol/liter was found in patients with normal renal function, or when the sudden rise (50% or more) was observed in patients with previous mild-to-moderate chronic renal failure (SCr < 264 mumol/liter). Of the 748 cases of ARF studied, 665 episodes presented in inhabitants from the Madrid area. This gives an overall incidence of ARF of 209 cases per million population (p.m.p.; 95% CJ 195 to 223). The incidence of acute tubular necrosis (ATN) was 88 cases p.m.p. (95% CI 79 to 97), prerenal ARF 46 p.m.p (95% CI 40 to 52), acute-onset chronic ARF 29 p.m.p. (95% CI 24 to 34), and obstructive ARF 23 p.m.p. (95% CI 19 to 27). The mean age was 63 +/- 17 years. The most frequent causes of ARF were ATN (45%), prerenal (21%), acute-onset chronic renal failure (12.7%) and obstructive ARF (10%). Renal function was normal at admission in 48% of patients who later developed ARF. Mortality (45%) was much higher than that of the other patients admitted (5.4%, P < 0.001). This real outcome correlated extremely well with the expected outcome calculated through out the severity index of ARF (SI) 0.433 +/- 0.246 (mean +/- SD). In 187 cases, mortality was attributed to underlying disease, thus corrected mortality due to ARF was 26.7%. Dialysis was required in 36% of patients, and was associated with a significantly higher SI of ARF (0.57 +/- 0.23 vs. 0.35 +/- 0.19, P < 0.001) and mortality (65.9 vs. 33.2%, P < 0.001). Mortality in patients hemodialyzed with biocompatible synthetic membranes (N = 50) was similar to that observed with cellulosic ones (N = 84; 66% vs. 59.5%, NS). Mortality was higher in patients with coma, assisted respiration, hypotension, jaundice (all P < 0.001) and oliguria (P < 0.02). This study gives, for the first time, the incidence of all forms of ARF in a developed country. ARF is iatrogenically induced at a high rate by modern medicine. Prevention strategies, particularly in the perioperative period, are needed to decrease its impact.

Acute tubular necrosis (ATN) caused by ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) during renal transplantation delays allograft function. Identification of factors that mediate protection and/or epithelium recovery could help to improve graft outcome. We studied the expression, regulation and role of hypoxia inducible factor 1-alpha (HIF-1 α), using in vitro and in vivo experimental models of I/R as well as human post-transplant renal biopsies. We found that HIF-1 α is stabilized in proximal tubule cells during ischemia and unexpectedly in late reperfusion, when oxygen tension is normal. Both inductions lead to gene expression in vitro and in vivo. In vitro interference of HIF-1 α promoted cell death and in vivo interference exacerbated tissue damage and renal dysfunction. In pos-transplant human biopsies, HIF-1 α was expressed only in proximal tubules which exhibited normal renal structure with a significant negative correlation with ATN grade. In summary, using experimental models and human biopsies, we identified a novel HIF-1 α induction during reperfusion with a potential critical role in renal transplant.

The ability to predict the outcome in acute tubular necrosis (ATN) remains elusive despite considerable efforts. Accurate prediction is a crucial priority and has large economical and ethical implications, mainly to judge when treatment is futile and further efforts only prolong miserable agony. To analyze the influence of risk factors in the prognosis of ATN, we applied, in an initial phase, a prospective protocol of demographic data, cause of renal failure, diuresis, need of dialysis and clinical conditions in 228 patients using multiple linear and logistic regression models. In a control phase with 100 consecutive patients, we checked the accuracy of the results previously obtained, evaluating further the overall population of 328 patients in a synthetic phase. Finally, the validation of the equations obtained was verified in 25 patients from another hospital. As a complement of this 4-phase study, detailed statistical comparisons between both linear and logistic multiple regression models were undertaken. Correlation between probability of death obtained with equations from the initial phase applied to control patients and real evolution of these patients, survival or death, was excellent. The study of the synthetic phase revealed coma, assisted respiration, hypotension, oliguria and jaundice as having an independent positive influence on mortality and nephrotoxic etiology and normal consciousness on good prognosis. For the linear model, the same cut-off point of discriminant score (0.9) above which there were no chances for survival could be established in the 4 phases. With the logistic model, it only was found at later phases. The multiple linear was better than the logistic regression model in terms of better correlation with real mortality, better sensitivity and specificity intervals, easier use of discriminant cut-off point and better adjustment of distribution of standardized residuals to expected normal function. Early prognosis of ATN is possible and can be given using simple clinical features. A discriminant score allows to distinguish patients without chances for survival. The multiple linear is better than the logistic regression model in the prediction of the outcome in ATN.

As long-term outcome studies of acute renal failure (ARF) are scarce and non-homogeneous, we studied 187 consecutive acute tubular necrosis (ATN) patients without previous nephropathies, discharged alive from our hospital between October 77 and December 92 and followed-up until December 99 (range 7-22 years; median 7.2). Variables were analyzed at the time of the acute episode and during follow-up. In 2000-2001 a clinical evaluation was made in 58 of the 82 patients still alive. Ten patients were lost to follow-up and 95 died. In 59% death was related with the disease present when the ATN developed. Kaplan-Meir survival curve showed 89, 67, 50, and 40% at 1, 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively, after discharge. Survival curves were significantly better (log-rank P<0.001) among the youngest, those surviving a polytrauma, those without comorbidity and surprisingly those treated in intensive care units. The proportional Cox model showed that age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04 per year of age; P=0.000), presence of comorbid factors (HR 4.29; P=0.006), surgical admission (HR 0.45; P=0.000), and male sex (HR 1.72; P=0.020) were the variables associated with long-term follow-up. In the evaluated patients renal function was normal in 81%. Long-term outcome after ARF depends on absence of co-morbid factors, cause of initial admission and age. Although the late mortality rate is high and related with the original disease, renal function is adequate in most patients.