Surveillance and epidemic modeling were used to study chronic wasting disease (CWD), a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that occurs naturally among sympatric, free-ranging deer (Odocoileus spp.) and Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) populations in contiguous portions of northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming (USA). We used clinical case submissions to identify endemic areas, then used immunohistochemistry to detect CWD-infected individuals among 5,513 deer and elk sampled via geographically-focused random surveys. Estimated overall prevalence (prevalence, 95% confidence interval) in mule deer (4.9%, 4.1 to 5.7%) was higher than in white-tailed deer (2.1%, 0.5 to 3.4%) or elk (0.5%, 0.001 to 1%) in endemic areas; CWD was not detected in outlying portions of either state. Within species, CWD prevalence varied widely among biologically- or geographically-segregated subpopulations within the 38,137 km2 endemic area but appeared stable over a 3-yr period. The number of clinical CWD cases submitted from an area was a poor predictor of local CWD prevalence, and prevalence was typically > or =1% before clinical cases were first detected in most areas. Under plausible transmission assumptions that mimicked field data, prevalence in epidemic models reached about 1% in 15 to 20 yr and about 15% in 37 to 50 yr. Models forecast population declines once prevalence exceeded about 5%. Both field and model data supported the importance of lateral transmission in CWD dynamics. Based on prevalence, spatial distribution, and modeling, we suggest CWD has been occurring in northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming for >30 yr, and may be best represented as an epizootic with a protracted time-scale.

No abstract

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an invariably fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk, and moose. Despite a 100% fatality rate, areas of high prevalence, and increasingly expanding geographic endemic areas, little is known about the population-level effects of CWD in deer. To investigate these effects, we tested the null hypothesis that high prevalence CWD did not negatively impact white-tailed deer population sustainability. The specific objectives of the study were to monitor CWD-positive and CWD-negative white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD area longitudinally via radio-telemetry and global positioning system (GPS) collars. For the two populations, we determined the following: a) demographic and disease indices, b) annual survival, and c) finite rate of population growth (λ). The CWD prevalence was higher in females (42%) than males (28.8%) and hunter harvest and clinical CWD were the most frequent causes of mortality, with CWD-positive deer over-represented in harvest and total mortalities. Survival was significantly lower for CWD-positive deer and separately by sex; CWD-positive deer were 4.5 times more likely to die annually than CWD-negative deer while bucks were 1.7 times more likely to die than does. Population λ was 0.896 (0.859–0.980), which indicated a 10.4% annual decline. We show that a chronic disease that becomes endemic in wildlife populations has the potential to be population-limiting and the strong population-level effects of CWD suggest affected populations are not sustainable at high disease prevalence under current harvest levels.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Prions are infectious proteins causing fatal, transmissible neurodegenerative diseases of animals and humans. Replication involves template-directed refolding of host encoded prion protein, PrPC, by its infectious conformation, PrPSc. Following its discovery in captive Colorado deer in 1967, uncontrollable contagious transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) led to an expanded geographic range in increasing numbers of free-ranging and captive North American (NA) cervids. Some five decades later, detection of PrPSc in free-ranging Norwegian (NO) reindeer and moose marked the first indication of CWD in Europe. To assess the properties of these emergent NO prions and compare them with NA CWD we used transgenic (Tg) and gene targeted (Gt) mice expressing PrP with glutamine (Q) or glutamate (E) at residue 226, a variation in wild type cervid PrP which influences prion strain selection in NA deer and elk. Transmissions of NO moose and reindeer prions to Tg and Gt mice recapitulated the characteristic features of CWD in natural hosts, revealing novel prion strains with disease kinetics, neuropathological profiles, and capacities to infect lymphoid tissues and cultured cells that were distinct from those causing NA CWD. In support of strain variation, PrPSc conformers comprising emergent NO moose and reindeer CWD were subject to selective effects imposed by variation at residue 226 that were different from those controlling established NA CWD. Transmission of particular NO moose CWD prions in mice expressing E at 226 resulted in selection of a kinetically optimized conformer, subsequent transmission of which revealed properties consistent with NA CWD. These findings illustrate the potential for adaptive selection of strain conformers with improved fitness during propagation of unstable NO prions. Their potential for contagious transmission has implications for risk analyses and management of emergent European CWD. Finally, we found that Gt mice expressing physiologically controlled PrP levels recapitulated the lymphotropic properties of naturally occurring CWD strains resulting in improved susceptibilities to emergent NO reindeer prions compared with over-expressing Tg counterparts. These findings underscore the refined advantages of Gt models for exploring the mechanisms and impacts of strain selection in peripheral compartments during natural prion transmission.