Excess nitrogen (N) impairs inland water quality and creates hypoxia in coastal ecosystems. Agriculture is the primary source of N; agricultural management and hydrology together control aquatic ecosystem N loading. Future N loading will be determined by how agriculture and hydrology intersect with climate change, yet the interactions between changing climate and water quality remain poorly understood. Here, we show that changing precipitation patterns, resulting from climate change, interact with agricultural land use to deteriorate water quality. We focus on the 2012-2013 Midwestern U.S. drought as a ''natural experiment''. The transition from drought conditions in 2012 to a wet spring in 2013 was abrupt; the media dubbed this ''weather whiplash''. We use recent (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and historical data to connect weather whiplash (drought-to-flood transitions) to increases in riverine N loads and concentrations. The drought likely created highly N-enriched soils; this excess N mobilized during heavy spring rains (2013), resulting in a 34% increase (10.5 vs. 7.8 mg N L -1 ) in the flow-weighted mean annual Biogeochemistry (2017) 133:7-15 DOI 10.1007 nitrate concentration compared to recent years. Furthermore, we show that climate change will likely intensify weather whiplash. Increased weather whiplash will, in part, increase the frequency of riverine N exceeding E.P.A. drinking water standards. Thus, our observations suggest increased climatic variation will amplify negative trends in water quality in a region already grappling with severe impairments.

No-till cropping can increase soil C stocks and aggregation but patterns of long-term changes in N2O emissions, soil N availability, and crop yields still need to be resolved. We measured soil C accumulation, aggregation, soil water, N2O emissions, soil inorganic N, and crop yields in till and no-till corn-soybean-wheat rotations between 1989 and 2002 in southwestern Michigan and investigated whether tillage effects varied over time or by crop. Mean annual NO3- concentrations in no-till were significantly less than in conventional till in three of six corn years and during one year of wheat production. Yields were similar in each system for all 14 years but three, during which yields were higher in no-till, indicating that lower soil NO3- concentrations did not result in lower yields. Carbon accumulated in no-till soils at a rate of 26 g C m(-2) yr(-1) over 12 years at the 0- to 5-cm soil depth. Average nitrous oxide emissions were similar in till (3.27 +/- 0.52 g N ha d(-1)) and no-till (3.63 +/- 0.53 g N ha d(-1)) systems and were sufficient to offset 56 to 61% of the reduction in CO2 equivalents associated with no-till C sequestration. After controlling for rotation and environmental effects by normalizing treatment differences between till and no-till systems we found no significant trends in soil N, N2O emissions, or yields through time. In our sandy loam soils, no-till cropping enhances C storage, aggregation, and associated environmental processes with no significant ecological or yield tradeoffs.

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SignificanceMethane from global rice cultivation currently accounts for one-half of all crop-related greenhouse gas emissions. Several international organizations are advocating reductions in methane emissions from rice by promoting intermittent flooding without accounting for the possibility of large emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a long-lived greenhouse gas. Our experimental results suggest that the Indian subcontinent’s N2O emissions from intermittently flooded rice fields could be 30–45 times higher than reported under continuous flooding. Net climate impacts of rice cultivation could be reduced by up to 90% through comanagement of water, nitrogen, and carbon. To do this effectively will require a careful ongoing global assessment of N2O emissions from rice, or we will risk ignoring a very large source of climate impact.

AbstractAll branches of ecology study relationships among and between environmental and biological variables. However, standard approaches to studying such relationships, based on correlation and regression, provide only a small slice of the complex information contained in the relationships. Other statistical approaches exist that provide a complete description of relationships between variables, based on the concept of the copula; they are applied in finance, neuroscience and other fields, but rarely in ecology. We here explore the concepts that underpin copulas and examine the potential for those concepts to improve our understanding of ecology. We find that informative copula structure in dependencies between variables is common across all the environmental, species-trait, phenological, population, community, and ecosystem functioning datasets we considered. Many datasets exhibited asymmetric tail associations, whereby two variables were more strongly related in their left compared to right tails, or vice versa. We describe mechanisms by which observed copula structure and asymmetric tail associations can arise in ecological data, including a Moran-like effect whereby dependence structures between environmental variables are inherited by ecological variables; and asymmetric or nonlinear influences of environments on ecological variables, such as under Liebig’s law of the minimum. We also describe consequences of copula structure for ecological phenomena, including impacts on extinction risk, Taylor’s law, and the stability through time of ecosystem services. By documenting the importance of a complete description of dependence between variables, advancing conceptual frameworks, and demonstrating a powerful approach, we aim to encourage widespread use of copulas in ecology, which we believe can benefit the discipline.

Evaluating nitrate-N fluxes from agricultural landscapes is inherently complex due to the wide range of intrinsic and dynamic controlling variables. In this study, we investigate the influence of contrasting antecedent moisture conditions on nitrate-N flux magnitude and dynamics in a single agricultural watershed on intra-annual and rainfall-event temporal scales. High temporal resolution discharge and nitrate concentration data were collected to evaluate nitrate-N flux magnitude associated with wet (2009) ) were observed during the drought conditions of 2012, consistent with a quickflow-dominated response to rain events and infiltration/ storage of precipitation resulting in discharge < precipitation. Nitrate-N loads and yields from the watershed were much higher (up to an order of magnitude) in the wet year vs. the dry year. Our results suggest that the response of nitrate-N loading to rain events is highly dependent on intra-annual antecedent moisture conditions and subsurface hydrologic connectivity, which together dictate the dominant hydrologic pathways for stream recharge. Additionally, the results of our study indicate that continued pronounced wet/dry cycles may become more dominant as the short-term driver of future nitrate-N exports.

Hot spots and hot moments of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes can contribute significantly to overall GHG budgets. Hot spots and hot moments occur when dynamic soil hydrology triggers important shifts in soil biogeochemical and physical processes that control GHG emissions. Soil oxygen (O 2), a direct control on biogenic GHG production (i.e., nitrous oxide-N 2 O, carbon dioxide-CO 2 and methane-CH 4), may serve as both an important proxy for determining sudden shifts in subsurface biogenic GHG production, as well as the physical transport of soil GHG to the atmosphere. Recent technological advancements offer opportunities to link in-situ, near-continuous measurements of soil O 2 concentration to soil biogeochemical processes and soil gas transport. Using high frequency data, this study asked: Do soil O 2 dynamics following short-term (< 8 days) soil saturation correspond to changes in soil GHG concentrations and GHG surface fluxes? We addressed this question in a restored riparian

Understanding how the quality of organic soil amendments affects the synchrony of nitrogen (N) mineralization and plant N uptake is critical for optimal agronomic N management and environmental protection. Composting solid livestock manures prior to soil application has been promoted to increase N synchrony; however, few field tests of this concept have been documented. Two years of replicated field trials were conducted near Boone, Iowa to determine the effect of composted versus fresh solid swine manure (a mixture of crop residue and swine urine and feces produced in hoop structures) on Zea mays (maize) N uptake, in situ soil net N mineralization, and soil inorganic N dynamics. Soil applications of composted manure increased maize N accumulation by 25 % in 2000 and 21 % in 2001 compared with fresh manure applications (application rate of 340 kg N ha -1 ). Despite significant differences in net N mineralization between years, within year seasonal total in situ net N mineralization was similar for composted and fresh manure applications. Partial N budgets indicated that changes in soil N pools (net N mineralization and soil inorganic N) in the surface 20 cm accounted for 67 % of the total plant N accumulation in 2000 but only 16 % in 2001. Interannual variation in maize N accumulation could not be attributed to soil N availability. Overall, our results suggest that composting manures prior to soil application has no clear benefit for N synchrony in maize crops. Further work is required to determine the biotic and abiotic factors underlying this result.