By recognizing the gap in the literature in examining the effects of financial resources and development outcomes at the household level, this paper examines whether the poorest income quintile would benefit most from programs aimed at increasing their access to financial services in rural northern Nigeria. Most households from this part of the world consist of farmers and, hence, are exposed to the vagaries of climate change. The data from 320 questionnaires administered in two rural communities (Rijau and Fakai) were analyzed using an ordered logit regression model. The results showed that access to financial services by using formal financial institutions and farmer savings clubs benefits vulnerable farmers (mostly women). The robustness check using the Brant test also confirmed that the parallel regression assumption of the model was not violated. A policy scenario that seeks to increase the delivery of financial services to rural farm households using community savings clubs and microfinance institution reforms for reaching the financially underserved was also found to benefit the poorest income quintile, hence, bringing them out of poverty.
This paper examines farmers' perceptions of their exposure to climate change in rural northern Nigeria. It also examines whether there is a significant relationship between the exposure of farmers to climate change and their need for financial access as an adaptation strategy. Questionnaires were administered to 320 respondents in rural communities in northern Nigeria. Descriptive analysis shows that rural farmers are affected by climate change through increased temperature, prolonged dry seasons, floods, and drought, which lead to low harvest and, in turn, low income. An estimate from a non-parametric test also shows a significant relationship between farmers' perceived exposure to climate change and their need for credit. Although the Spearman correlation results show a 63% association between exposure to climate change and the need for finance, 96% of those seeking credit to mitigate these impacts would be unable to do so due to financial exclusiveness. The paper recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure that microfinance institutions refocus their products/services to those who need them the most in order to enhance access to financial resources and enable farmers to build resilience that will maximize post-harvest gains. Lastly, considering that climate change is a global phenomenon with local effects, perhaps the international community could support lending to smallholder farmers through central banks by insuring the loans that banks give to farmers towards financing climate change adaptation strategies.
Résumé Ce document examine la possibilité de le dividende démographique au Nigeria. Il étudie le rôle de l'autonomisation des jeunes dans la réalisation du dividende démographique. Il identifie les défis auxquels fait face un jeune Nigérian typique et les différentes façons d'investir dans l'explosion de la jeunesse. Il estime que les défis auxquels sont confrontés les plages de jeunes nigérians du problème de chômage des jeunes, l'accès
The paper examines the revenue-spending hypothesis for Nigeria using macro data from 1970 to 2011. Correlation analysis, granger causality test, regression analysis, lag regression model, vector error correction model and impulse response analysis were the techniques used for analysis. The paper found that revenue and expenditure are highly correlated and that causality runs from revenue to expenditure in Nigeria. The vector error correction model also confirms that there is a significant long run relationship between revenue and expenditure implying that disequilibrium in expenditure can be corrected in the long run through policies that adjust oil and non-oil sector revenues. The lagged regression model showed that the positive relationship between revenue and expenditure reverts to negative at lag five thereby justifying the need for the use of medium term expenditure framework to monitor expenditure patterns in the short to medium term. The paper concludes that short term shocks from crude oil price passes through oil revenue to affect expenditure. This has led to swings in public expenditure pattern with sustained increase of recurrent expenditure over capital that has consequences for economic growth. Putting policies in place to enhance the performance of the non-oil sector and adopting expenditure framework that accounts for possible decline in crude oil prices was conceived as useful in enhancing a healthy revenue-expenditure relationship in Nigeria.
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