Purpose To extend the functionality of the existing INFLUENCE nomogram for locoregional recurrence (LRR) of breast cancer toward the prediction of secondary primary tumors (SP) and distant metastases (DM) using updated follow-up data and the best suitable statistical approaches. Methods Data on women diagnosed with non-metastatic invasive breast cancer were derived from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 13,494). To provide flexible time-dependent individual risk predictions for LRR, SP, and DM, three statistical approaches were assessed; a Cox proportional hazard approach (COX), a parametric spline approach (PAR), and a random survival forest (RSF). These approaches were evaluated on their discrimination using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic and on calibration using the Integrated Calibration Index (ICI). To correct for optimism, the performance measures were assessed by drawing 200 bootstrap samples. Results Age, tumor grade, pT, pN, multifocality, type of surgery, hormonal receptor status, HER2-status, and adjuvant therapy were included as predictors. While all three approaches showed adequate calibration, the RSF approach offers the best optimism-corrected 5-year AUC for LRR (0.75, 95%CI: 0.74–0.76) and SP (0.67, 95%CI: 0.65–0.68). For the prediction of DM, all three approaches showed equivalent discrimination (5-year AUC: 0.77–0.78), while COX seems to have an advantage concerning calibration (ICI < 0.01). Finally, an online calculator of INFLUENCE 2.0 was created. Conclusions INFLUENCE 2.0 is a flexible model to predict time-dependent individual risks of LRR, SP and DM at a 5-year scale; it can support clinical decision-making regarding personalized follow-up strategies for curatively treated non-metastatic breast cancer patients.

Background Rectal cancer is frequent in Germany and worldwide. Several studies have assessed laparoscopic surgery as a treatment option and most have shown favorable results. However, long-term oncologic safety remains a controversial issue. Methods The current dataset derives from 30 clinical cancer registries in Germany and includes 16,378 patients diagnosed with rectal cancer between 2007 and 2016. Outcomes were 90-day mortality, overall survival (OS), local recurrence-free survival (RFS) and relative survival of patients treated with either open or laparoscopic surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors that affected the probability of a patient undergoing laparoscopic surgery as well as to evaluate short-term mortality. OS and RFS were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier plots and multivariable Cox regression conducted separately for UICC stages I-III, tumor location, and sex as well as by propensity score matching followed by univariable and multivariable survival analysis. Results Of 16,378 patients, 4540 (27.7%) underwent laparoscopic surgery, a trend which increased during the observation period. Patients undergoing laparoscopy attained better results for 90-day mortality (odds ratio, OR 0.658, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.526-0.822). The 5-year OS rate in the laparoscopic group was 82.6%, vs. 76.6% in the open surgery group, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.819 in multivariable Cox regression (95% CI 0.747-0.899, p < 0.001). The laparoscopic group showed a better 5-year RFS, with 81.8 vs. 74.3% and HR 0.770 (95% CI 0.705-0.842, p < 0.001). The 5-year relative survival rates were also in favor of laparoscopy, with 93.1 vs. 88.4% (p = 0.012). Conclusion Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer can be performed safely and, according to this study, is associated with an oncological outcome superior to that of the open procedure. Therefore, in the absence of individual contraindications, it should be considered as a standard approach.

Patients with colorectal cancer treated in certified compared to non-certified centers show long-term survival benefits. Patients of certified colorectal cancer centers show long-term survival benefits compared to those treated at non-certified centers. Early and successful implementation of high quality standards could explain why survival rates before and after certification do not differ.

BackgroundAn increasing number of rectal carcinoma resections in Germany and worldwide are performed laparoscopically. The recently published COLOR II trial demonstrated the oncologic safety of this surgical approach. It remains unclear whether these findings can be transferred to clinical practice.Patients and methodsThis population-based retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate 5-year overall, relative, disease-free, and local recurrence-free survival of rectal cancer patients treated by open surgery and laparoscopy. Data from a southern German region of 1.1 million inhabitants were collected by an official clinical cancer registry. All primary non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma cases with surgery between 2004 and 2013 were eligible for inclusion. To compare survival rates, Kaplan–Meier analyses, relative survival models, and multivariate Cox regression were applied; a sensitivity analysis assessed bias by exclusion.ResultsFinally, 1507 patients with a median follow-up time of 7.1 years were included. Of these patients, 28.4% underwent laparoscopic procedures, with an increasing rate over time. Patients with tumors of the upper or middle rectum, younger patients, and patients of specialized colorectal cancer centers were more likely to undergo laparoscopy. After 5 years, 80.4% of laparoscopy patients were still alive, compared to 68.6% in the open group (p < 0.001). Moreover, laparoscopy was associated with superior local recurrence-free survival rates. This advantage was also significant in multivariate analysis (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.52–0.92).ConclusionLaparoscopic rectal cancer surgery can be considered safe in daily clinical practice. This should be confirmed by future studies outside the setting of randomized trials.

Objectives: An important aim of follow-up after primary breast cancer treatment is early detection of locoregional recurrences (LRR). This study compares 2 personalized follow-up scheme simulations based on LRR risk predictions provided by a timedependent prognostic model for breast cancer LRR and quantifies their possible follow-up efficiency.Methods: Surgically treated early patients with breast cancer between 2003 and 2008 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The INFLUENCE nomogram was used to estimate the 5-year annual LRR. Applying 2 thresholds, they were defined according to Youden's J-statistic and a predefined follow-up sensitivity of 95%, respectively. These patient's risk estimations served as the basis for scheduling follow-up visits; 2 personalized follow-up schemes were simulated. The number of potentially saved follow-up visits and corresponding cost savings for each follow-up scheme were compared with the current Dutch breast cancer guideline recommendation and the observed utilization of follow-up on a training and testing cohort. Results: Using LRR risk-predictions for 30 379 Dutch patients with breast cancer from 2003 to 2006 (training cohort), 2 thresholds were calculated. The threshold according to Youden's approach yielded a follow-up sensitivity of 62.5% and a potential saving of 62.1% of follow-up visits and V24.8 million in 5 years. When the threshold corresponding to 95% follow-up sensitivity was used, 17% of follow-up visits and V7 million were saved compared with the guidelines. Similar results were obtained by applying these thresholds to the testing cohort of 11 462 patients from 2007 to 2008. Compared with the observed utilization of follow-up, the potential cost-savings decline moderately. Conclusions: Personalized follow-up schemes based on the INFLUENCE nomogram's individual risk estimations for breast cancer LRR could decrease the number of follow-up visits if one accepts a limited risk of delayed LRR detection.