Summary Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8–75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0–8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0–62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0–7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3–50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8–5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0–49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5–5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5–46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2–5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3–3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0–11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862–11943)...

SummaryBackgroundDetailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.MethodsWe have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations in...

SummaryBackgroundNational levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.MethodsWe mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure–the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index–on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among...

Summary Background The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpret...

BackgroundThe risk of death from complications relating to pregnancy and childbirth over the course of a woman’s lifetime is higher in the developing countries. Improving the health of mothers and children through well-organized institutional delivery service is central to achieve reduced maternal and child morbidity and mortality. So, factors that underlie the level of institutional delivery service utilization need to be investigated, especially in areas where little is known about the problem. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess factors influencing institutional delivery service utilization in Dembecha district, Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsCommunity based quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted from March 1 to 30, 2015 among 674 mothers who gave birth within the last two years preceding the study using interviewer administered questionnaire. Multi-stage sampling with stratification sampling technique was used. Descriptive statistics were done to characterize the study population using different variables. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to determine association. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were computed. Statistical significance was declared at p-value <0.05.ResultsOf all 674 respondents, 229(34%, 95% CI: 29.8%–37.9%) of them utilized health institutions for their last delivery. History of still birth (AOR (adjusted odds ratio) =0.25, 95% CI (confidence interval) =0.07–0.77), number of ANC visit (AOR = 38.51, 95% CI = 22.35–66.33), functional media (AOR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.59–4.28) and distance to nearby health facility (AOR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.32–0.83) were found to be significantly associated with institutional delivery service utilization.ConclusionIn this research the level of institutional delivery service utilization is still low compared to government initiatives. History of still birth, low number of ANC visit, unavailability of functional media and existence of distant health facilities were found to be significantly associated with low utilization of the service. So, concerned bodies should contribute their share to improve institutional delivery service utilization in the study area by tackling modifiable risk factors.

BackgroundThe contraceptive use of women in the extended postpartum period is usually different from other times in a woman’s life cycle due to the additional roles and presence of emotional changes. However, there is lack of evidence regarding women contraceptive need during this period and the extent they met their need. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess unmet need for modern contraceptives and associated factors among women during the extended postpartum period in Dessie Town, North east Ethiopia in December 2014.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among women who gave birth one year before the study period. Systematic random sampling technique was employed to recruit a total of 383 study participants. For data collection, a structured and pretested standard questionnaire was used. Descriptive statistics were done to characterize the study population using different variables. Bivariate and multiple logistic regression models were fitted to control confounding factors. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were computed to identify factors associated with unmet need.ResultsThis study revealed that 44% of the extended post-partum women had unmet need of modern contraceptives of which 57% unmet need for spacing and 43% for limiting. Education of women (being illiterate) (AOR (adjusted odds ratio) =3.37, 95% CI (confidence interval) 1.22–7.57), antenatal care service (no) (AOR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.11–5.79), Post-natal care service (no) (AOR = 3.63, CI 2.13–6.19) and knowledge of lactational amenorrhea method (AOR = 7.84 95% CI 4.10–15.02) were the factors positively associated with unmet need modern contraceptives in the extended postpartum period.ConclusionThe unmet need for modern contraception is high in the study area. There is need to improve the quality of maternal health service, girls education, information on postpartum risk of pregnancy on the recommended postpartum contraceptives to enable mothers make informed choices of contraceptives.

Introduction Some studies in developing countries have shown that infant mortality is highly associated with maternal education, implying that maternal education might play an important role in the reduction of infant mortality. However, other research has shown that lower levels of maternal education does not have any significant contribution to infant survival. In this systematic review, we focus on the effect of different levels of maternal education on infant mortality in Ethiopia. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Maternity and Infant Care databases were searched between November 15, 2017 and February 20, 2018. All articles published until February 20, 2018 were included in the study. The data extraction was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA 2009) guidelines. An I 2 test was used to assess heterogeneity and a funnel plot was used to check publication bias. Findings We retrieved 441 records after removing duplications. During screening, 31 articles were fully accessed for data extraction. Finally, five articles were included for analysis. The overall pooled estimate indicated that attending primary education was associated with a 28% reduction in the odds of infant mortality compared to those infants born to mothers who were illiterate, OR: 0.72 (95% CI = 0.66, 0.78). Another pooled estimate indicated that attending secondary education and above was associated with a 45% reduction in the odds of infant mortality compared to those infants born to mothers who were illiterate, OR: 0.55 (95% CI = 0.47, 0.64). Conclusion From this study, understanding the long-term impact of maternal education may contribute to reduce infant mortality. Therefore, policy makers should give more attention in promoting the role of women through removing institutional and cultural barriers, which hinder women from access to education in order to reduce infant mortality in Ethiopia.

IntroductionCurrently, diabetes is the second most common non-communicable disease (NCD) in Ethiopia. Its burden is 4.8% in this country, even though three quarter of its population live with undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (DM), which causes complications like heart failure, blood vessels, eyes, kidneys and nerves damages. Early detection of DM is vital for a timely intervention to prevent these life threatening complications. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of undiagnosed DM and related factors in East Gojjam, North West Ethiopia, in 2016.Materials and methodsA community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 757 individuals in East Gojjam from June to September 2016. The sampled population was selected using multi-stage cluster sampling method. Basic data were collected in Amharic (local language) and a pretested interviewer administered the questionnaire. Peripheral blood samples were collected by puncturing the ring finger in order to measure fasting blood glucose. Univarite and multivariate logistic regressions analysis were performed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software version 20.0.ResultsThe percentage of undiagnosed DM in the study area was 11.5% (95%CI=9.2, 13.7). The prevalence was 11.3% among male vs. 11.8% among female; 13.4% in urban areas vs. 10.3% in rural areas. The occurrence of undiagnosed DM was mainly associated with older age (AOR=5.99, 95%CI=1.54, 23.24), family history of diabetes (AOR=9.86, 95%CI=4.25, 22.89), history of gestational diabetes (AOR=3.01, 95%CI=1.17, 8.39) and sedentary behaviour >4 hours per day (AOR=2.13, 95%CI=1.04, 4.34). Being non-smoker (AOR=0.05, 95%CI=0.01, 0.17) and unmarried (AOR=0.09, 95%CI=0.02, 0.42) were also predictive characteristics for undiagnosed DM in the study area.ConclusionsIn conclusion, this study revealed a relatively high prevalence of undiagnosed DM in the study area. The occurrence of undiagnosed DM was significantly higher when associated with the age of the participants, their marital status, history of hypertension, diabetes family history, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, current smoking practices and sedentary behaviour. Thus, efforts have to be made, particularly by the individuals involved in health practice, to early detect the disease and thereby initiate a suitable therapeutic service, before complications ariseSignificance for public healthCurrently, diabetes is the second most common non-communicable disease in Ethiopia. Its burden is 4.8% in this country, though three quarter of its population live with undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (DM), which could lead to several complications such as heart failure, blood vessels, eyes, kidneys, and nerves damages. Evidence shows that the disease is increasing through time. Early detection of DM is vital for a timely intervention to prevent life-threatening complications. Efforts should be made by politicians, decision makers and other healthy institutions to implement screening modality and early interventions.