This study's contribution to literature is presenting empirical evidence on the impact of financial inclusion, meaning elimination of barriers to accessing financial services, on poverty at the household level in developing countries, using Indonesia as a case study. This is a significant problem for developing countries such as Indonesia, which faces high poverty, even though it has achieved rapid financial development. Using the Binary Logistic (Logit) model and data from approximately 300,000 households from the 2017 Indonesian National Social and Economic Survey (Susenas), this research reveals that financial inclusion decreases households' probability of absolute poverty. Furthermore, financial inclusion can compensate for a lack of assets, a limited number of non-agriculture occupational opportunities in rural areas, and low education levels of household heads. In addition, financial inclusion has the potential to reduce incentives for poor, low-skilled rural people to migrate to urban areas in search of non-agricultural employment opportunities. Policy recommendations based on the results found are twofold. First, for people who are vulnerable to poverty, financial inclusion should be enhanced, especially for poor women-headed farming households in rural areas. Second, for policy-makers concerned with urbanization of low-skilled poor migrants, enhancing financial inclusion in rural areas is needed to help reduce urbanization pressures.
This research aims to analyze the level of exports in Indonesia by using Time Series data from the year 1990 to 2015 against a variable interest rate loands, gross domestic product, and the exchange rate. Methods of analysis used i.e, Auto Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL). The results showed that the three variables have no Granger which is caused by the difference of the order on the test stasioner. Based on a test of wald for the short term that gained and the long-term gross domestic product, exchange rates and interest rates significantly influential credit toward export.Keywords:ARDL, export, interest rate loands, gross domestic product, exchange rates.AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat ekspor di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data Time Series dari tahun 1990 sampai 2015 terhadap variabel suku bunga kredit, produk domestik bruto, dan nilai tukar. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu AutoRegressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL).Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ketiga variabel tidak memiliki kointegrasi yang disebabkan oleh perbedaan ordo pada uji stasionernya. Berdasarkan uji wald didapat bahwa untuk jangka pendek dan jangka panjang produk domestik bruto, nilai tukar dan suku bunga kredit berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ekspor.
The main objective of this research is to analyze the effect of depreciation and real exchange rate appreciation on Indonesia's tourism trade balance bilaterally against Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. Such analysis on bilateral relations have never been studied for developing markets countries, namely Indonesia. This study uses a linear ARDL approach and a nonlinear ARDL approach with the dependent variable on the tourism trade balance and the real exchange rate as independent variables. Income, foreign direct investment (FDI), and natural disasters as control variables. The empirical results show that Chinese and Japanese tourists respond positively to the depreciation in the real currency rate of exchange, thereby increasing Indonesia's tourism trade balance. Nonlinear ARDL shows that the relation concerning the real rate of exchange plus the balance of trade is non-symmetrical with respect to China and Japan, while Australia, Malaysia, and Singapore are symmetrical. These results suggest that the government should formulate policies to increase tourist visits from China and Japan. Further empirical results also found a J-curve pattern in Indonesia-China and Indonesia-Japan.
Money transfer or remittances is one of the main sources of international finance that sometimes exceed the flow of foreign direct investment. This research aims to observe the influence of TKI and the remittance to GDP per Capita in Indonesia by using time series data from the years 1990-2016. Method of the research used Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL). In Indonesia, the money transfer (remittance) is second after oil and gas (state budget sources or APBN). The result showed that the TKI and positive and significant influential remmitance to GDP per capita Indonesia. Although GDP per capita increased Indonesia result of remittance, but government should increase employment in Indonesia so that Indonesia does not labor must fight and workabroad.Keywords: Remittance, TKI, GDP Per capita, the ARDL.AbstrakPengiriman uang (remitansi) merupakan salah satu sumber keuangan internasional utama yang terkadang melebihi arus investasi langsung asing. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengamati pengaruh TKI dan remitansi terhadap PDB Per Kapita di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data time series dari tahun 1990-2016. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu Autoregressive DistributedLagged (ARDL). Di Indonesia, pengiriman uang (remitansi) merupakan sumber APBN kedua setelah Migas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa TKI dan remitansi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDB per kapita Indonesia. Meskipun PDB per Kapita Indonesia meningkat akibat dari remitansi, akan tetapi pemerintah harus meningkatkan lapangan pekerjaan di Indonesia agar tenaga kerja Indonesia tidak harus berjuang dan bekerja di luar negeri
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