Hydroelectricity provides approximately 65% of Brazil's power generating capacity, making the country vulnerable to droughts, which are becoming increasingly frequent. Current energy law and policy responses to the problem rely on a sectorial approach and prioritise energy security and market regulation. Brazil has opted to increase energy security levels during periods of hydrological variability with national grid interconnection and thermal plants backup.
This study analyzes climate change mitigation policies focused on light-duty electric vehicles (LDEVs) in the transportation sector in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, in the 2016–2050 period. We use the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) to analyze scenarios that consider greater uptake of LDEVs in different time frames, implementation of a CO2 emission restriction policy, exclusion of fossil fuels from the power mix, and a combination of these policies. We find that carbon pricing, along with higher rates of LDEVs adoption, causes the highest emission reductions (up to 47%), albeit at higher costs. LDEVs become the preferred vehicle technology as soon as they reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in different scenarios. Greater LDEVs uptake, however, leads to increased electricity consumption (up to 3%), which is provided by fossil fuels when there is no emission restriction policy. If restrictions are placed on the expansion of fossil fuel power plants, fewer LDEVs are adopted (up to less than 26%) because there is not enough electricity to supply the demand. Given the state’s power mix in 2016 (58% provided by fossil fuels), investment in zero-carbon energy is necessary for mitigation policies in the transportation sector to be effective.
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