ObjectiveClimate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts.Data sourcesIn this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems.Data synthesisWe established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks.ConclusionsOverall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.
The serotonin re-uptake inhibitor fluoxetine was selected for an environmental risk assessment, using the most recent European guideline (EMEA 2006) within the European Union (EU)-funded Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals (ERAPharm) project due to its environmental persistence, acute toxicity to nontarget organisms, and unique pharmacokinetics associated with a readily ionizable compound. As a widely prescribed psychotropic drug, fluoxetine is frequently detected in surface waters adjacent to urban areas because municipal wastewater effluents are the primary route of entry to aquatic environments. In Phase I of the assessment, the initial predicted environmental concentration of fluoxetine in surface water (initial PEC(SW)) reached or exceeded the action limit of 10 ng/L, when using both a default market penetration factor and prescription data for Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Consequently, a Phase II risk assessment was conducted in which green algae were identified as the most sensitive species with a NOEC of <0.6 microg/L. From this value, a predicted no effect concentration for surface waters (PNEC(SW)) of 0.012 microg/L was derived. The PEC/PNEC ratio was above the trigger value of 1 in worst-case exposure scenarios indicating a potential risk to the aquatic compartment. Similarly, risks of fluoxetine for sediment-dwelling organisms could not be excluded. No risk assessment was conducted for the terrestrial compartment due to a lack of data on effects of fluoxetine on soil organisms. The need for a separate risk assessment for the main metabolite of fluoxetine, norfluoxetine, was not conducted because of a lack of fate and effect studies. Based on published data, fluoxetine and norfluoxetine appeared to have a low to moderate bioaccumulation potential, which should be confirmed in formal studies according to OECD guidelines. Exposure assessments for fluoxetine according to the current framework rely heavily on K(OC) and K(OW) values. This approach is problematic, because fluoxetine is predominantly a cationic substance at environmental pH values. Consequently, the fate of fluoxetine (and other ionic substances) cannot be predicted using partition coefficients established for nonionic compounds. Further, published estimates for partition coefficients of fluoxetine vary, resulting in considerable uncertainties in both the exposure and environmental risk assessments of fluoxetine.
On 3 October 2007, 40 participants with diverse expertise attended the workshop Tamiflu and the Environment: Implications of Use under Pandemic Conditions to assess the potential human health impact and environmental hazards associated with use of Tamiflu during an influenza pandemic. Based on the identification and risk-ranking of knowledge gaps, the consensus was that oseltamivir ethylester-phosphate (OE-P) and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) were unlikely to pose an ecotoxicologic hazard to freshwater organisms. OC in river water might hasten the generation of OC-resistance in wildfowl, but this possibility seems less likely than the potential disruption that could be posed by OC and other pharmaceuticals to the operation of sewage treatment plants. The work-group members agreed on the following research priorities: a) available data on the ecotoxicology of OE-P and OC should be published; b) risk should be assessed for OC-contaminated river water generating OC-resistant viruses in wildfowl; c) sewage treatment plant functioning due to microbial inhibition by neuraminidase inhibitors and other antimicrobials used during a pandemic should be investigated; and d) realistic worst-case exposure scenarios should be developed. Additional modeling would be useful to identify localized areas within river catchments that might be prone to high pharmaceutical concentrations in sewage treatment plant effluent. Ongoing seasonal use of Tamiflu in Japan offers opportunities for researchers to assess how much OC enters and persists in the aquatic environment.
Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens/ chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. We assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems in the UK and discuss the effects on health impacts, using expert input and literature on climate change; health effects from exposure to pathogens/chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals/pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the evidence base for health effects of chemicals/pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical/pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of various contaminants. We merged data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems, and defined recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage adverse increases in risks.
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