In terms of accuracy, deep learning (DL) models have had considerable success in classification problems for medical imaging applications. However, it is well-known that the outputs of such models, which typically utilise the SoftMax function in the final classification layer can be over-confident, i.e. they are poorly calibrated. Two competing solutions to this problem have been proposed: uncertainty-aware training and evidential neural networks (ENNs). In this paper we perform an investigation into the improvements to model calibration that can be achieved by each of these approaches individually, and their combination. We perform experiments on two classification tasks: a simpler MNIST digit classification task and a more complex and realistic medical imaging artefact detection task using Phase Contrast Cardiac Magnetic Resonance images. The experimental results demonstrate that model calibration can suffer when the task becomes challenging enough to require a higher capacity model. However, in our complex artefact detection task we saw an improvement in calibration for both a low and higher capacity model when implementing both the ENN and uncertainty-aware training together, indicating that this approach can offer a promising way to improve calibration in such settings. The findings highlight the potential use of these approaches to improve model calibration in a complex application, which would in turn improve clinician trust in DL models.
Evaluation of predictive deep learning (DL) models beyond conventional performance metrics has become increasingly important for applications in sensitive environments like healthcare. Such models might have the capability to encode and analyse large sets of data but they often lack comprehensive interpretability methods, preventing clinical trust in predictive outcomes. Quantifying uncertainty of a prediction is one way to provide such interpretability and promote trust. However, relatively little attention has been paid to how to include such requirements into the training of the model. In this paper we: (i) quantify the data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty of a DL model for Cardiac Resynchronisation Therapy response prediction from cardiac magnetic resonance images, and (ii) propose and perform a preliminary investigation of an uncertainty-aware loss function that can be used to retrain an existing DL image-based classification model to encourage confidence in correct predictions and reduce confidence in incorrect predictions. Our initial results are promising, showing a significant increase in the (epistemic) confidence of true positive predictions, with some evidence of a reduction in false negative confidence.
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