PurposeThis study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investors' sentiments, behavioral biases and investment decisions in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).Design/methodology/approachThe authors have assessed investors' behaviors and sentiments and the stock market overreaction during COVID-19 using a questionnaire and collected data from 401 investors trading in the PSX.FindingsResults of structural equation modeling revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic affected investors' behaviors, investment decisions and trade volume. It created feelings of fear and uncertainty among market participants. Evidence suggests that behavioral heuristics and biases, including representative heuristic, anchoring heuristic, overconfidence bias and disposition effect, negatively influenced investors' decisions at the PSX.Research limitations/implicationsThis study will contribute to behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries as it has revealed the impact of COVID-19 on the emerging stock market, and its results are generalizable to other emerging stock markets.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study will help academicians, researchers and policymakers of developing countries. Academicians can formulate new behavioral models that can depict the solutions of dealing with an uncertain situation like COVID-19. Policymakers like the Securities Exchange Commission and the PSX can formulate crisis management strategies based on behavioral finance concepts to cope with situations like COVID-19 in the future and help lessen investors' losses in the stock markets. The role of the Securities Exchange Commission is crucial as it regulates the financial markets. It can arrange workshops to educate investors to manage their decisions during crisis time and focus on the best use of irrational and rational decision-making at the same time using Lo (2004) adaptive market hypothesis.Originality/valueThe novelty of the paper is that the authors have introduced overconfidence and disposition effect as mediators that create a connection between representative and anchoring heuristics and investment decisions using primary data collected from investors (institutional and retail) to demonstrate the presence of psychological biases during COVID-19, and it has been done for the first time according to authors' knowledge. It is a contribution and addition to the behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries' stock markets and their efficiency.
This research aims at testing and confirming existence of selected behavioral biases of investors that affect their decisions. Five behavioral biases affecting irrational behavior of investors were selected: overconfidence bias, illusion of control bias, confirmation bias and recency bias and optimism bias. Primary data was collected through a questionnaire from 300 investors from banks, insurance companies, stock exchanges etc. The results were obtained by employing a correlation and regression analysis for the presence of behavioral biases and to detect degrees of their influence on decision making. Correlation results indicate moderate association between behavioral biases and decisions of investors. Outcome of the research indicates that while making financial decisions investors are moderately affected by behavioral biases.
Behavioral finance focuses on psychological factors—such as risk perception and portfolio management—that play a crucial role in investors’ financial decisionmaking. This study investigates the effect of risk tolerance and demographic characteristics on risk perception and portfolio management, which, in turn, affect investors’ decisions. Applying structural equation modeling to data collected from a sample of 120 respondents, we find a significant and positive relationship between risk perception and risk tolerance. Similarly, certain demographic characteristics, such as age and education, have a significant and positive relationship with risk perception while others, such as income and gender, have a significant but negative relationship with risk perception. Risk tolerance has a significant but negative relationship with portfolio management. Age, education, and income have a significant but negative relationship with portfolio management, while gender has a significant and positive relationship with portfolio management.
The current study used panel data to empirically analyze the determinants of stock prices and for that monthly closing stock prices of eight main banks of Pakistan were taken for the period from January 2005 till December 2013. Various unit root and cointegration techniques were employed for analysis besides Granger Causality. The results indicated increase in share prices in response to boom in economic activity, whereas bank share prices declined in response to currency depreciation and interest rate increase. Furthermore, in long-run, Granger causality is witnessed among economic growth, nominal exchange rate and bank stock prices. Interest rate and bank stock prices Granger cause each other and hence, exhibit a bi-directional causality. The findings of the current study have significant implications for portfolio advisors, risk management framework of banks and their regulators.
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