Since 1980, the abundance of wild Atlantic salmon has been monitored by means of catch records, adult counts, electrofishing and smolt trapping in six rivers flowing into the northern Baltic Sea. River abundance (spawners, parr and smolts) was compared with implemented large-scale and river-specific management measures and with natural factors potentially affecting abundance. Since the 1980s, the wild stocks have recovered in a synchronous cyclical pattern. The recovery occurred mainly in two jumps, first a sudden increase dating back to around 1990 and a second sharp rise in the late 1990s. River abundance of young salmon commonly rose about 10-fold and approached the previously estimated production capacity in some of the rivers. This positive development may be explained by a decline in fishing pressure together with covarying natural factors influencing survival and growth. The offshore fishery started to decline at the time of the first increase, while the reduction in the total allowable catches together with seasonal restrictions on the coastal fishery strengthened the second increase. Improved natural conditions seem to have increased both survival and escapement during the first rise. Spawners producing the second rise were the offspring of the spawners of the first rise. The outbreak of the M74 mortality syndrome among alevins reduced the abundance of several year-classes that hatched during the first half of the 1990s. In most rivers, the fraction of older and female fish in the spawning run has increased over the period, thereby increasing the reproductive capacity of the populations. No distinct effects of variations in river-specific management regimes were observed. Instead, the results emphasize the role of fisheries management in the open sea as well as in coastal waters, and also of non-human factors in controlling overall abundance of wild salmon in northern Baltic rivers.

A Bayesian state–space mark–recapture model is developed to estimate the exploitation rates of fish stocks caught in mixed-stock fisheries. Expert knowledge and published results on biological parameters, reporting rates of tags and other key parameters, are incorporated into the mark–recapture analysis through elaborations in model structure and the use of informative prior probability distributions for model parameters. Information on related stocks is incorporated through the use of hierarchical structures and parameters that represent differences between the stock in question and related stocks. Fishing mortality rates are modelled using fishing effort data as covariates. A state–space formulation is adopted to account for uncertainties in system dynamics and the observation process. The methodology is applied to wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks from rivers located in the northeastern Baltic Sea that are exploited by a sequence of mixed- and single-stock fisheries. Estimated fishing mortality rates for wild salmon are influenced by prior knowledge about tag reporting rates and salmon biology and, to a limited extent, by prior assumptions about exploitation rates.

This paper presents a sequential Bayesian framework for quantitative fisheries stock assessment that relies on a wide range of fisheries-dependent and -independent data and information. The presented methodology combines information from multiple Bayesian data analyses through the incorporation of the joint posterior probability density functions (pdfs) in subsequent analyses, either as informative prior pdfs or as additional likelihood contributions. Different practical strategies are presented for minimising any loss of information between analyses. Using this methodology, the final stock assessment model used for the provision of the management advice can be kept relatively simple, despite the dependence on a large variety of data and other information. This methodology is illustrated for the assessment of the mixed-stock fishery for four wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks in the northern Baltic Sea. The incorporation of different data and information results in a considerable update of previously available smolt abundance and smolt production capacity estimates by substantially reducing the associated uncertainty. The methodology also allows, for the first time, the estimation of stock–recruit functions for the different salmon stocks.

Salmonines in the Baltic Sea and North American lakes suffer from thiamine (vitamin B1) deficiency, which is connected to an abundant lipid-rich diet containing substantial amounts of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). In the Baltic region, this is known as the M74 syndrome. It affects both adult salmon (Salmo salar) and especially their offspring, impairing recruitment. However, very little is known about the thiamine and lipid metabolism of salmon during feeding and spawning migrations in the Baltic Sea. In this study, salmon females were sampled along the spawning run from the southern Baltic Proper in four locations at sea and finally at spawning in a river at the Bothnian Bay in a year with insignificant M74 mortality. Changes in concentrations of thiamine and its components in muscle, ovaries, and the liver and other biochemical indices potentially relating to lipid and fatty acid metabolism were investigated. The results provide further evidence of the role of peroxidation of PUFAs in eliciting thiamine deficiency in salmon: During the entire spawning run, the muscle total lipid content decreased by 50%, palmitic acid (16:0) by 62%, and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n-3) by 45%. The concentration of total thiamine decreased significantly until the spawning in the liver and ovaries, 66 and 70% respectively. In the muscle, the proportion of thiamine pyrophosphate of total thiamine increased with the use of muscular lipid stores. There was no trend in the concentration of total carotenoids during the spawning run. The doubling of the concentration of hepatic malondialdehyde indicated peroxidation of PUFAs, and the mobilisation of body lipids suppressed the activity of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, as consumed dietary lipids would also have done.

Mäntyniemi, S., Romakkaniemi, A., Dannewitz, J., Palm, S., Pakarinen, T., Pulkkinen, H., Gårdmark, A., and Karlsson, O. 2012. Both predation and feeding opportunities may explain changes in survival of Baltic salmon post-smolts. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1574–1579. The survival of wild and hatchery-reared post-smolts of salmon (Salmo salar) in the Baltic Sea has declined since the 1990s. Direct observations of the processes affecting survival are, however, lacking. Here, the importance of food availability and predation in regulating post-smolt survival is analysed. Based on previous studies, the following explanatory variables were selected: (i) availability of herring (Clupea harengus membras) recruits in the Gulf of Bothnia (Bothnian Sea, Bothnian Bay) in the northern Baltic Sea; (ii) sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus) and herring abundance in the southern Baltic Sea; and (iii) abundance of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) along the post-smolt migration route. Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the relative probability of each of the 32 combinations of these variables and revealed that the model including grey seal abundance and herring recruits per post-smolt had the highest posterior probability and a high coefficient of determination. The results suggest that the declining trend in post-smolt survival is explained by the increased number of grey seals, whereas the annual variation in survival coincides with variation in the recruitment of Bothnian Sea herring. However, it remains uncertain whether the observed correlations arise from direct causalities or other mechanisms.