Model-assisted design of experiments Quality by design a b s t r a c tReliable scale-up of biopharmaceutical production processes is key in Quality by Design. In this study, a model-based workflow is described to evaluate the bioprocess dynamics during process transfer and scale-up computationally. First, a mathematical model describes the bioprocess dynamics of different state variables (e.g., cell density, titer). Second, the model parameter probability distributions are determined at different scales due to measurement uncertainty. Third, the quantified parameter distributions are statistically compared to evaluate if the process dynamics have been changed. This workflow was tested for the scale-up of an antibody-producing CHO fed-batch process. Significant differences were identified between the process development (30 ml) and implementation (250 ml) scale, and the feeding strategy was validated using model-assisted Design of Experiments. Then, the validated process strategy was successfully scaled up to 2 l laboratory and 50 l pilot scale. In summary, the proposed workflow enables a knowledge-driven evaluation tool for bioprocess development.

For production of biopharmaceuticals in suspension cell culture, seed trains are required to increase cell number from cell thawing up to production scale. Because cultivation conditions during the seed train have a significant impact on cell performance in production scale, seed train design, monitoring, and development of optimization strategies is important. This can be facilitated by model‐assisted prediction methods, whereby the performance depends on the prediction accuracy, which can be improved by inclusion of prior process knowledge, especially when only few high‐quality data is available, and description of inference uncertainty, providing, apart from a “best fit”‐prediction, information about the probable deviation in form of a prediction interval. This contribution illustrates the application of Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian updating for seed train prediction to an industrial Chinese hamster ovarian cell culture process, coppled with a mechanistic model. It is shown in which way prior knowledge as well as input uncertainty (e.g., concerning measurements) can be included and be propagated to predictive uncertainty. The impact of available information on prediction accuracy was investigated. It has been shown that through integration of new data by the Bayesian updating method, process variability (i.e., batch‐to‐batch) could be considered. The implementation was realized using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.

Bioprocess development and optimization are still cost- and time-intensive due to the enormous number of experiments involved. In this study, the recently introduced model-assisted Design of Experiments (mDoE) concept (Möller et al. in Bioproc Biosyst Eng 42(5):867, 10.1007/s00449-019-02089-7, 2019) was extended and implemented into a software (“mDoE-toolbox”) to significantly reduce the number of required cultivations. The application of the toolbox is exemplary shown in two case studies with Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In the first case study, a fed-batch process was optimized with respect to the pH value and linearly rising feeding rates of glucose and nitrogen source. Using the mDoE-toolbox, the biomass concentration was increased by 30% compared to previously performed experiments. The second case study was the whole-cell biocatalysis of ethyl acetoacetate (EAA) to (S)-ethyl-3-hydroxybutyrate (E3HB), for which the feeding rates of glucose, nitrogen source, and EAA were optimized. An increase of 80% compared to a previously performed experiment with similar initial conditions was achieved for the E3HB concentration.

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For the manufacturing of complex biopharmaceuticals using bioreactors with cultivated mammalian cells, high product concentration is an important objective. The phenotype of the cells in a reactor plays an important role. Are clonal cell populations showing high cell-specific growth rates more favorable than cell lines with higher cell-specific productivities or vice versa? Five clonal Chinese hamster ovary cell populations were analyzed based on the data of a 3-month-stability study. We adapted a mechanistic cell culture model to the experimental data of one such clonally derived cell population. Uncertainties and prior knowledge concerning model parameters were considered using Bayesian parameter estimations. This model was used then to define an inoculum train protocol. Based on this, we subsequently simulated the impacts of differences in growth rates (±10%) and production rates (±10% and ±50%) on the overall cultivation time, including making the inoculum train cultures; the final production phase, the volumetric titer in that bioreactor and the ratio of both, defined as overall process productivity. We showed thus unequivocally that growth rates have a higher impact (up to three times) on overall process productivity and for product output per year, whereas cells with higher productivity can potentially generate higher product concentrations in the production vessel.

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Bioprocess modeling has become a useful tool for prediction of the process future with the aim to deduce operating decisions (e.g. transfer or feeds). Due to variabilities, which often occur between and within batches, updating (re-estimation) of model parameters is required at certain time intervals (dynamic parameter estimation) to obtain reliable predictions. This can be challenging in the presence of low sampling frequencies (e.g. every 24 h), different consecutive scales and large measurement errors, as in the case of cell culture seed trains. This contribution presents an iterative learning workflow which generates and incorporates knowledge concerning cell growth during the process by using a moving horizon estimation (MHE) approach for updating of model parameters. This estimation technique is compared to a classical weighted least squares estimation (WLSE) approach in the context of model updating over three consecutive cultivation scales (40–2160 L) of an industrial cell culture seed train. Both techniques were investigated regarding robustness concerning the aforementioned challenges and the required amount of experimental data (estimation horizon). It is shown how the proposed MHE can deal with the aforementioned difficulties by the integration of prior knowledge, even if only data at two sampling points are available, outperforming the classical WLSE approach. This workflow allows to adequately integrate current process behavior into the model and can therefore be a suitable component of a digital twin.