Abstract. Our overall objective was to use a soil water model to predict spatial patterns in germination and establishment of two important perennial C4‐bunchgrasses across the North American shortgrass steppe and desert grassland regions. We also predicted changes in establishment patterns under climate change scenarios. Bouteloua gracilis dominates the shortgrass steppe from northeastern Colorado to southeastern New Mexico. Bouteloua eriopoda dominates desert grasslands in central and southern New Mexico. Germination and establishment for each species were predicted at 16 sites along the gradient using a daily time step, multi‐layer soil water model (SOILWAT) to determine the percentage of years that temperature and soil water criteria for germination and establishment were met. Percentage of years with predicted establishment decreased from north to south for B. gracilis, but increased from north to south for B. eriopoda, comparable to observed dominance patterns. The 95 % confidence interval around the point at which simulated establishment were equal for the two species was near the location of the shortgrass steppe‐desert grassland ecotone where both species are abundant. The intersection in percentage of years with establishment for the two species was predicted to move further north when climate was scaled using three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), indicating a possible northward expansion of B. eriopoda. Our results suggest that recruitment by seed may be an important process in determining, at least in part, the geographic distribution of these two species. Changes in climate that affect establishment constraints could result in shifts of species dominance that may or may not be accompanied by changes in species composition.

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Abstract. Shrub-dominated arid and semiarid ecosystems are characterized by spatial patterns in vegetation and bare ground (e.g., resource islands). Modern oil and gas well pad construction entails complete removal of vegetation and upper soil layers, followed by replacement of soils and attempts at revegetation; historically, many pads were merely abandoned. Feedbacks between soil and vegetation are required for the recovery of ecosystem functions in these catastrophically disturbed systems. We measured soil organic carbon (SOC), employing a spatially explicit sampling protocol, on two sites in undisturbed big sagebrush communities and a chronosequence of eight recovering well pads. Sites in undisturbed communities exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation of SOC at the plot level that was absent from all of the well pad sites. Incorporating shrub presence as a covariate revealed three additional cases of SOC spatial autocorrelation on well pads. These results, along with SOC patterns between and under plants, suggest resource island development. These findings support the hypothesis that species identity as well as functional group need to be taken into account in restoration. Restoration of ecosystem functions, including those associated with resistance and resilience to disturbance, may be enhanced when characteristic soil heterogeneity and vegetation spatial patterns recover.

In arid and semi-arid environments, where low and unpredictable rainfall is typical, establishment of perennial vegetation can be enhanced with modest increases in soil moisture. We evaluated methods for promoting shrub transplant establishment. We transplanted approximately 1 000 3-mo-old seedlings in April 2004, 2005, and 2006, using a full-factorial design with combinations of three treatments: addition of mycorrhizae spores to the root zone, addition of a hydrogel to the root zone, and placement of a wood obstruction south of the plant. We planted three shrubs: big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. ssp. tridentate), four wing saltbush (Atriplex canescens [Pursh] Nutt.), and rubber rabbitbrush (Ericameria nauseosa [Pall. ex Pursh] G.L. Nesom & Baird ssp. nauseosa) in a 1.2-ha area. The summer months of 2004 and 2006 were dry, leading to low survivorship (, 1%). With higher rainfall in summer 2005, transplant survivorship was ,18%. For the 2005 transplants, A. tridentata had the highest survivorship after one growing season (31.0%), followed by A. canescens (20.6%) and E. nauseosa (6.9%). Placing a wood obstruction near the plant was significant in the statistical model to describe short-term overall transplant survival and survival of A. tridentata. Placing hydrogel in the root zone also explained short-term overall transplant survival, as well as survival of E. nauseosa. However, by 4.5 yr after transplanting, there was no significant treatment effect on survival. Thus, for transplanting shrub seedlings on arid or semi-arid sites, we recommend some form of resource enhancement technique to increase short-term survival. In this experiment, both the obstruction and hydrogel treatments were effective. We recommend the obstruction treatment since slash is often readily available onsite, has low labor requirements and cost, and it increased transplant survival of A. tridentata, a species of conservation concern; however, other treatments may be appropriate for individual species. Resumen En zonas áridas y semiáridas, donde las bajas precipitaciones y la lluvia impredecible son típicas, el establecimiento de la vegetación perenne puede ser mejorado con pequeñ os incrementos en la humedad del suelo. Se evaluaron métodos para promover el establecimiento de arbustos trasplantados. Se trasplantaron aproximadamente 1 000 plántulas de 3 meses en Abril de 2004, 2005, y 2006, usando un diseñ o completamente factorial con combinaciones de tres tratamientos: adición