Cilj ovog rada je procjena učinaka udaljenosti od središta grada na cijene stambenih nekretnina u Gradu Zagrebu unutar hedoničkog modela. Model prezentiran u radu je prvi u hrvatskoj literaturi hedoničkog modeliranja koji istovremeno obuhvaća varijable udaljenosti, druge lokacijske varijable, interne karakteristike nekretnina i efekt vremena prodaje stana na zagrebačkom tržištu. Razlika u odnosu na dosadašnju praksu u Hrvatskoj se sastoji u tome što se do sada lokacija stambene nekretnine uobičajeno opisivala širim područjima poput gradskih četvrti. Procjena efekata udaljenosti i drugih lokacijskih varijabli je provedena unutar hedoničkih modela traženih i postignutih cijena stambenih nekretnina, odnosno stanova. Dokazano je kako su udaljenost od središta grada i varijable kojima se opisuje smještaj nekretnine na pojedinim stranama svijeta statistički značajne za objašnjavanje traženih i stvarnih cijena stanova u Zagrebu. Nadalje, njihovo uključivanje u hedonički model poboljšava njegovu prilagođenost stvarnim podacima u odnosu na dosadašnje modele izrađene za hrvatska stambena tržišta.
Protekla je godina (2020.) obilježena šokovima koji su u različitim sferama uzdrmali hrvatsko gospodarstvo. U prvom redu, covid-19 pandemija i mjere potpunog/parcijalnog zaključavanja gospodarstva prvotno su usporile ekonomsku aktivnost, a potom i rezultirale rekordno negativnim stopama rasta BDP-a. Neposredno nakon proglašenja svjetske pandemije, glavni grad Hrvatske pogođen je još jednim nepredviđenim šokom u obliku snažnog potresa. U ovom radu procjenjuju se učinci navedenih događaja na cijene stanova na razini Hrvatske, ali i pojedinih regija (Zagreb, Jadran i ostalo). Usporedno se procjenjuje i učinak subvencioniranja stambenih kredita koji nije vezan isključivo za 2020. Hedoničkim modelom procjene traženih i postignutih cijena stanova utvrđeno je kako pandemija nije značajno povezana s kretanjima cijena stanova, dok se subvencije na stambene kredite mogu dovesti u vezu s rastom cijena na pojedinim segmentima tržišta. Dodatno, potres u Zagrebu je, prema rezultatima procjene, moguće povezati s rastom cijena na segmentu novije izgrađenih stanova.
Since the beginning of this century, the Croatian housing market has passed through various stages of development. Roughly, trends in this housing market could be observed through three different phases. The first period encompasses the first eight years of this century and is characterized by stable and positive movements of supply and demand indicators. The year 2008 represents the turning point towards negative trends on the Croatian housing market. This was the beginning of a crisis which lasted seven years. During this period, the demand for housing units has fallen dramatically and supply of new housing units has grown at low rates. As a result of such market developments, housing prices have decreased. Negative trends persist until 2015, when stable increase of supply indicators is perceived. Thereafter, demand side of the market starts to recover, along with housing prices which begin to rise. This research represents an attempt to identify the factors that have influenced the mentioned developments on the Croatian housing market. The significance of factors which are included in analysis is tested within the multiple regression framework. Special emphasis is placed on modelling housing prices dynamics. The results indicate that there are certain specificities of the Croatian housing market. For example, demand cannot be explained well by standard housing demand determinants. The low significance of the standard factors is even more pronounced in modelling supply side of the market. When observing the significance of housing prices in the supply and demand equations, the results show that lagged prices in both equations are statistically significant. Therefore, it can be concluded that expectations on housing market in Croatia are adaptive. Finally, supply and demand elasticities are observed as their comparison can potentially help in explaining cyclic movements in the housing market.
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