To test the usefulness of the forensic PCR-MPS approach to eye and hair color prediction for aged skeletons, a customized version of the PCR-MPS HIrisPlex panel was used on two sets of samples. The first set contained 11 skeletons dated from the 3rd to the 18th centuries AD, and for each of them at least four bone types were analyzed (for a total of 47 samples). In the second set, 24 skeletons from the Second World War were analyzed, and only petrous bones from the skulls were tested. Good-quality libraries were achieved in 83.3% of the cases for the ancient skeletons and in all Second World War petrous bones, with 94.7% and 100% of the markers, respectively, suitable for SNP typing. Consensus typing was achieved for about 91.7% of the markers in 10 out of 11 ancient skeletons, and the HIrisPlex-S webtool was then used to generate phenotypic predictions. Full predictions were achieved for 3 (27.3%) ancient skeletons and 12 (50%) Second World War petrous bones. In the remaining cases, different levels of AUC (area under the receiver operating curve) loss were computed because of no available data (NA) for 8.3% of markers in ancient skeletons and 4.2% of markers in Second World War petrous bones. Although the PCR-based approach has been replaced with new techniques in ancient DNA studies, the results show that customized forensic technologies can be successfully applied to aged bone remains, highlighting the role of the template in the success of PCR-MPS analysis. However, because several typical errors of ancient DNA sequencing were scored, replicate tests and accurate evaluation by an expert remain indispensable tools.
Ancient DNA research in the past decade has revealed that European population structure changed dramatically in the prehistoric period (14,000-3,000 years before present, YBP), reflecting the widespread introduction of Neolithic farmer and Bronze Age Steppe ancestries. However, little is known about how population structure changed in the historical period onward (3,000 YBP - present). To address this, we collected whole genomes from 204 individuals from Europe and the Mediterranean, many of which are the first historical period genomes from their region (e.g. Armenia, France). We found that most regions show remarkable inter-individual heterogeneity. Around 8% of historical individuals carry ancestry uncommon in the region where they were sampled, some indicating cross-Mediterranean contacts. Despite this high level of mobility, overall population structure across western Eurasia is relatively stable through the historical period up to the present, mirroring the geographic map. We show that, under standard population genetics models with local panmixia, the observed level of dispersal would lead to a collapse of population structure. Persistent population structure thus suggests a lower effective migration rate than indicated by the observed dispersal. We hypothesize that this phenomenon can be explained by extensive transient dispersal arising from drastically improved transportation networks and the Roman Empire’s mobilization of people for trade, labor, and military. This work highlights the utility of ancient DNA in elucidating finer scale human population dynamics in recent history.
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