Background: Although pelagic seabirds are broadly recognised as indicators of the health of marine systems, numerous gaps exist in knowledge of their at-sea distributions at the species level. These gaps have profound negative impacts on the robustness of marine conservation policies. Correlative modelling techniques have provided some information, but few studies have explored model development for non-breeding pelagic seabirds. Here, I present a first phase in developing robust niche models for highly mobile species as a baseline for further development. Methodology: Using observational data from a 12-year time period, 217 unique model parameterisations across three correlative modelling algorithms (boosted regression trees, Maxent and minimum volume ellipsoids) were tested in a time-averaged approach for their ability to recreate the at-sea distribution of non-breeding Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) to provide a baseline for further development. Principle Findings/Results: Overall, minimum volume ellipsoids outperformed both boosted regression trees and Maxent. However, whilst the latter two algorithms generally overfit the data, minimum volume ellipsoids tended to underfit the data. Conclusions: The results of this exercise suggest a necessary evolution in how correlative modelling for highly mobile species such as pelagic seabirds should be approached. These insights are crucial for understanding seabird-environment interactions at macroscales, which can facilitate the ability to address population declines and inform effective marine conservation policy in the wake of rapid global change. ABSTRACT Boosted regression trees; digital accessible knowledge; distribution modelling; Maxent; minimum volume ellipsoids; pelagic seabird distribution; Diomedea exulans KEYWORDS

Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremonti) is a foundation riparian tree species that drives community structure and ecosystem processes in southwestern U.S. ecosystems. Despite its ecological importance, little is known about the ecological and environmental processes that shape its genetic diversity, structure, and landscape connectivity. Here, we combined molecular analyses of 82 populations including 1312 individual trees dispersed over the species' geographical distribution. We reduced the data set to 40 populations and 743 individuals to eliminate admixture with a sibling species, and used multivariate restricted optimization and reciprocal causal modeling to evaluate the effects of river network connectivity and climatic gradients on gene flow. Our results confirmed the following: First, gene flow of Fremont cottonwood is jointly controlled by the connectivity of the river network and gradients of seasonal precipitation. Second, gene flow is facilitated by mid-sized to large rivers, and is resisted by small streams and terrestrial uplands, with resistance to gene flow decreasing with river size. Third, genetic differentiation increases with cumulative differences in winter and spring precipitation. Our results suggest that ongoing fragmentation of riparian habitats will lead to a loss of landscape-level genetic connectivity, leading to increased inbreeding and the concomitant loss of genetic diversity in a foundation species. These genetic effects will cascade to a much larger community of organisms, some of which are threatened and endangered.

Little is currently known about bacterial pathogen evolution and adaptation within the host during acute infection. Previous studies of Burkholderia pseudomallei, the etiologic agent of melioidosis, have shown that this opportunistic pathogen mutates rapidly both in vitro and in vivo at tandemly repeated loci, making this organism a relevant model for studying short-term evolution. In the current study, B. pseudomallei isolates cultured from multiple body sites from four Thai patients with disseminated melioidosis were subjected to fine-scale genotyping using multilocus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA). In order to understand and model the in vivo variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) mutational process, we characterized the patterns and rates of mutations in vitro through parallel serial passage experiments of B. pseudomallei. Despite the short period of infection, substantial divergence from the putative founder genotype was observed in all four melioidosis cases. This study presents a paradigm for examining bacterial evolution over the short timescale of an acute infection. Further studies are required to determine whether the mutational process leads to phenotypic alterations that impact upon bacterial fitness in vivo. Our findings have important implications for future sampling strategies, since colonies in a single clinical sample may be genetically heterogeneous, and organisms in a culture taken late in the infective process may have undergone considerable genetic change compared with the founder inoculum.

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