Forecasts of serviceability of distributed civil infrastructure systems under a severe earthquake should consider the impact of spatial correlation of seismic intensities on system function and serviceability. Limited information on seismic wave propagation and local site conditions makes such forecasts difficult, and previous research seldom has addressed the effects of spatially correlated seismic intensities and demands on civil infrastructure system performance. In this article, the serviceability of an infrastructure network system is evaluated with a model that considers spatial correlation in seismic intensity and demand. Simple closed-form upper-and lower-bound approximations to the component failure probabilities, functionality of components within the system that have been damaged by an earthquake, and network serviceability are presented and their usefulness for engineering decision making is evaluated. An assessment of the serviceability of the municipal water distribution system in Shelby County, Tennessee, which is located to the southeast of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, illustrates the approach.
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