This study aims to develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases, and heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases per city per 12 h, using multiple weather information and a population-based database for heatstroke patients in 16 Japanese cities (corresponding to around a 10,000,000 population size). In the testing dataset, mean absolute percentage error of generalized linear models with wet bulb globe temperature as the only predictor and the optimal models, respectively, are 43.0% and 14.8% for spikes in the number of all heatstroke cases, and 37.7% and 10.6% for spikes in the number of heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases. The optimal models predict the spikes in the number of heatstrokes well by machine learning methods including non-linear multivariable predictors and/or under-sampling and bagging. Here, we develop prediction models whose predictive performances are high enough to be implemented in public health settings.

Cities often have numerous underground spaces such as subways and shopping malls. These hold the possibility of being inundated in a disaster. The reasons of these disasters are urbanization and global warming. The vulnerability of underground spaces to extreme flood and evacuation from there are treated in this paper by using the results obtained by numerical methods in densely urbanized area, Osaka, Japan. It is found that up to 60% of water would flood underground spaces if no counter measures were taken. It was also confirmed such areas should be evacuated before inundation.

Various low toxicity substances are contained in the high functional electronic products in recent years. Although there is a little quantity of low toxicity substances in each electronic product, total amount of them has been increasing by the mass production of electronic products. This means they tends to diffuse into environment and it also results in the loss of valuable metals.In this work, a substance flow analysis (SFA) on low toxicity substances in used cellular phones as a typical example of high functional electronic commodity was carried out based on the actual condition of disposal which was acquired by the questionnaire applied to users and composition of cellular phone analyzed by ICP and EPMA. The amount of some scattered low toxicity substances has been estimated. It was pointed out that establishment of the recycling system of cellular phones including used ones stored by users is very important in the view point of the avoidance of low toxicity substance diffusion and recovery of valuable elements.

2 学生員 関西大学大学院 理工学研究科(〒564-8680 大阪府吹田市山手町3丁目3-35) 3 正会員 工博 関西大学 環境都市工学部教授(〒564-8680 大阪府吹田市山手町3丁目3-35) 4 正会員 工博 関西大学 環境都市工学部准教授(〒564-8680 大阪府吹田市山手町3丁目3-35) 5 フェロー Ph.D 京都大学 京都大学大学院工学研究科教授(〒615-8540 京都市西京区京都大学桂)

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