This article analyzes legislative performance in a nascent presidential bicameral democracy, taking Brazil as a case. The author argues that the timing and outcomes of legislative production are functions of bicameral incongruence, types of bicameralism, sequence of examination, and legislative bargaining. These hypotheses are tested using a new legislative data set from Brazil that covers over 3,000 bills submitted to the National Congress since 1988. Event history analyses of these bills show that presidential bicameral (coalitional) majorities, presidential elections, initiation by the lower house, and bills proposing provisional changes raise the chances of a bill's approval. The results also indicate that the effects of many of these variables are time dependent. In contrast, bicameral incongruence, symmetric bicameralism, and legislative elections either raise the risks of a bill's rejection or delay the timing of its approval. Economic crises increase legislative activities in general in both approving and rejecting bills.
What explains the propensities of countries to experience coups d'état? This article tests various, at times competing, theories of coups using event history analysis by modeling coups as repeatable events. We highlight the different roles that political regimes play in inducing or deterring coups, and argue that political regimes that are not clearly democratic or autocratic are the most vulnerable to coups. Features of hybrid regimes increase their underlying coup vulnerability and the impact of coup‐triggering events. While existing literature has noted higher coup frequency in nondemocratic regimes than in democratic regimes, we note the impact of differences within the nondemocratic regimes, with particular emphasis on the timing of a coup event. Contributing to growing research on variations in nondemocratic regimes and their consequences, our analysis of global coup data in 152 countries indicates that very autocratic regimes are much less vulnerable to coups than hybrid regimes.
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This article addresses central issues in multiparty presidential systems: the functioning of legislative coalitions and the dynamics of legislative conflict. Since electoral competition has elements of both positive‐sum (increase in common support) and zero‐sum (exact division of the support) qualities, lawmaking in coalitional systems presents unique challenges. Using legislative data from Brazil, we examine how coalition management and unity affect legislative delay and obstructionism. We find, among others, that: (1) coalition management is pivotal for both faster legislative approval and less obstructionism, but its effect depends on coalition size; and (2) cohesive opposition impedes the legislative process.
President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's government presided over three critical junctures in the development of the Common Market of the South (Mercosul): the attempted military coup in Paraguay in 1996, the devaluation of the Brazilian real in 1999, and the Argentine economic crisis in 2002. Its responses to these events were critical to the development of Mercosul because of Brazil's unique position as the largest country in the bloc. Many theories of free trade and regional integration hold that economic integration requires a regionally preponderant power that acts as a core provider of collective goods for member states. When such a power provides benefits, satisfaction among the member states increases and the likelihood of integration is increased. An examination of the Cardoso government's policies during the three critical junctures suggests that regional integration declined when Argentina incurred costs during the Brazilian currency crisis and increased when Cardoso's government provided aid during the Argentine economic crisis and helped defeat the attempted coup in Paraguay.
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