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Successive disturbances such as fire can affect post-disturbance regeneration density, with documented adverse effects on subsequent stand productivity. We conducted a simulation study to assess the potential of reactive (reforestation) and proactive (variable retention harvesting) post-fire regeneration failure mitigation strategies in a 1.37-Mha fire-prone boreal landscape dominated by black spruce and jack pine. We quantified their respective capacity to maintain landscape productivity and post-fire resilience, as well as their associated financial returns under current and projected (RCP 8.5) fire regimes. While post-fire reforestation with jack pine revealed to be the most effective strategy to maintain potential production, associated costs quickly became prohibitive when applied over extensive areas. Proactive strategies such as an extensive use of variable retention harvesting, combined with replanting of fire-adapted jack pine only in easily accessible areas, appeared as a more promising approach. Despite this, our results suggest an inevitable erosion of forest productivity due to post-fire regeneration failure events, highlighting the importance to integrate fire a priori in strategic forest management planning as well as its effects on long-term regeneration dynamics.

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It has recently become clear that the regeneration density of serotinous species within a burned area declines with local fire intensity. It is assumed that this occurs because variation in local fire intensity leads to variation in incident heat fluxes and, ultimately, seed necrosis. We argue here that this same relationship between incident heat flux and seed necrosis is important at the scale of individual plant crowns. Using Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. (black spruce), we show that postfire seed viability increases with crown height, depth into the crown, and angle from wind direction (with the windward side enjoying greater viability). All three effects are what one would expect given the physics of buoyant plumes, interactions of moving fire lines with wake flow around cylinders, and heat transfer in porous bodies such as a tree crown. We conclude by discussing the broader consequences of cone cluster size and global change on regeneration in serotinous species.