Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.

Coffee farming provides livelihoods for around 15 million farmers in Ethiopia and generates a quarter of the country's export earnings. Against a backdrop of rapidly increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall, there is an urgent need to understand the influence of climate change on coffee production. Using a modelling approach in combination with remote sensing, supported by rigorous ground-truthing, we project changes in suitability for coffee farming under various climate change scenarios, specifically by assessing the exposure of coffee farming to future climatic shifts. We show that 39-59% of the current growing area could experience climatic changes that are large enough to render them unsuitable for coffee farming, in the absence of significant interventions or major influencing factors. Conversely, relocation of coffee areas, in combination with forest conservation or re-establishment, could see at least a fourfold (>400%) increase in suitable coffee farming area. We identify key coffee-growing areas that are susceptible to climate change, as well as those that are climatically resilient.

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Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present‐day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.

Floristic composition and vegetation structure were described for the woodland vegetation around Dello Menna, Bale zone, southeast Ethiopia. A total 50 (20 m × 20 m) quadrats were sampled to identify and describe plant community types, species diversity, richness and evenness and to relate the identified plant community types with some environmental factors and describe the population structure of woody plant species. In each quadrat, data on species identity, abundance, height and Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) of woody plant species, altitude and slope were recorded. Vegetation classification was performed using PC -ORD software package. Sorensen's similarity coefficient was used to detect dissimilarities among communities. Shannon -Wiener diversity index, species richness and Shannon's evenness were computed to describe species diversity of the plant community types. Results show that a total of 171 vascular plant species representing 53 families were recorded. Fabaceae is the dominant family represented by 13 genera and 26 species (15%) followed by Asteraceae, Lamiaceae and Anacardiaceae with eight species each (4.6%). Based on the results of vegetation classification, three plant communities (Dalbergia microphylla community, Grewia bicolar-Acacia brevispica community, and Combretum molleCombretum collinum community) are recognized and described. Species richness, diversity and evenness varied among the plant communities. Species richness and diversity exhibit a bell -shaped pattern along altitude. Species turn over among communities more or less follow altitudinal gradients. Tukey's pairwise comparison of means among the plant community types shows significant variations in altitude, implying that altitude is one of the most important factors determining the distribution of plant communities. The community Dalbergia microphylla type exhibits the highest species richness and diversity. Analysis of population structure of the dominant species reveals various patterns. Future research directions and recommendations are suggested for the sustainable utilization of the vegetation.

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The need for the conservation of Arabica coffee in the forests of southwestern Ethiopia is discussed. Beginning with the geographic and genetic origin of coffee, the diversity of the gene pools, human impacts on the forest landscape, and the current conservation status of coffee are also discussed. The strategies for in situ genetic reserves, the challenging constraints for conservation efforts, and some recommendations and actions are presented.

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