The Deepwater Horizon disaster resulted in the release of 490000 m3 of oil into the northern Gulf of Mexico. We quantified population consequences for pelagic cetaceans, including sperm whales, beaked whales and 11 species of delphinids. We used existing spatial density models to establish pre-spill population size and distribution, and overlaid an oil footprint to estimate the proportion exposed to oil. This proportion ranged from 0.058 (Atlantic spotted dolphin, 95% CI = 0.041-0.078) to 0.377 (spinner dolphin, 95% CI = 0.217-0.555). We adapted a population dynamics model, developed for an estuarine population of bottlenose dolphins, to each pelagic species by scaling demographic parameters using literature-derived estimates of gestation duration. We used expert elicitation to translate knowledge from dedicated studies of oil effects on bottlenose dolphins to pelagic species and address how density dependence may affect reproduction. We quantified impact by comparing population trajectories under baseline and oil-impacted scenarios. The number of lost cetacean years (difference between trajectories, summed over years) ranged from 964 (short-finned pilot whale, 95% CI = 385-2291) to 32584 (oceanic bottlenose dolphin, 95% = CI 13377-71967). Maximum proportional population decrease ranged from 1.3% (Atlantic spotted dolphin 95% CI = 0.5-2.3) to 8.4% (spinner dolphin 95% CI = 3.2-17.7). Estimated time to recover to 95% of baseline was >10 yr for spinner dolphin (12 yr, 95% CI = 0-21) and sperm whale (11 yr, 95% CI = 0-21), while 7 taxonomic units remained within 95% of the baseline population size (time to recover, therefore, as per its definition, was 0). We investigated the sensitivity of results to alternative plausible inputs. Our methods are widely applicable for estimating population effects of stressors in the absence of direct measurements.
Climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes in aquatic environments, posing a threat to ectothermic animals such as fishes. Temperature shifts can impact their reproductive cycle and behaviour, including acoustic signalling associated with courtship and mating in vocal fishes. Here, we examined the effect of temperature and other environmental factors on spawning-related chorusing behaviour in the meagre Argyrosomus regius. Using an automatic recognition system based on hidden Markov models coupled with one-third octave band sound level analysis, we extracted meagre daily vocal activity over 4 yr of passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) in the Tagus estuary (Portugal). Meagre vocal activity showed a distinct diel pattern, with choruses being most prevalent at dusk. Chorus activity started earlier in years with warmer springs, while the end of the season was concurrent with the rise in water temperature. Circa 70% of daily variations were explained by changes in water temperature. Tidal cycle, lunar phase and changes in daylength did not appear to affect vocal behaviour. Choruses were detected on days with mean water temperature ranging from 15-25°C, with stronger chorusing observed around 18°C. Abrupt temperature changes caused disruption in choruses and likely in associated spawning. This study highlights the importance of temperature to fish reproduction and demonstrates that PAM can be a useful tool for long-term conservation management plans. PAM may also allow us to predict how temperature shifts due to climate change may affect fish reproduction, using vocal fishes as model species.
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