Chickenpox is an urgent problem, as it is widely spread with a high level of morbidity and an increasing share in the structure of the General infectious pathology with significant economic damage. The aim of the study is to study the epidemiological and clinical features of chickenpox in adults hospitalized in Krai government-owned publicy funded health care institution «City clinical hospital No. 5, Barnaul» for the period 2008‑2018. Content analysis included statistical reporting forms No. 2 of Federal state statistical supervision «Data on infectious and parasitic diseases» in the city of Barnaul during the period 2008‑2018 of medical archival documents adult infectious Department Krai government-owned publicy funded health care institution «City clinical hospital №5, Barnaul» for the same period. Data processing was performed using calculation of intensive and extensive indicators, calculation of the arithmetic mean (X) and standard error of the average (m). Calculations were made using the STATISTICA-10 program. Consistently high rates were recorded, with an average of 64.32 ± 3.46 per 100,000 population. The percentage of hospitalized adults averaged 18.5% during the study period. Adults aged 18‑30 were more likely to be admitted to the hospital (90.3%); 41.6% were students. Adults with moderate severity were hospitalized more often (70.6%); 7 patients (1.3%) had complications: aphthous stomatitis (3 cases), pustulosis (2 cases), and pneumonia (2 cases). Patients with severe severity of the disease accounted for 2.4%, the premorbid background was burdened in 48% (HIV infection, tuberculosis). In 35% of patients with severe severity, the final diagnosis of Herpes zoster was made, all patients older than 40 years, stayed in the hospital for 20‑25 days.
The article focuses on the development and implementation of a simulation model that predicts the spread of chickenpox in a population. It addresses issues related to strategic planning and management of vaccination against the Varicella Zoster virus, with a specific focus on the Altai Krai. The article presents the results of economic efficiency calculations for a single vaccination program targeting 6-year-old children.
The simulation model utilizes a computational algorithm to predict the dynamics of the spread of chickenpox. The study examines various types of vaccination programs for children and compares the simulation results with real medical data from the Altai Krai. Statistical data on the incidence of chickenpox is used to inform the model.
The study identifies optimal vaccination parameters and strategies for the Altai Krai through testing the simulation model. The model is implemented using Python programming language and graphically visualizes the virus's spread for different types of vaccination programs and in the absence of vaccination.
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