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Experimental inoculations of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri in different tissues of Tahiti lime and Pineapple sweet orange were conducted monthly under natural conditions on Réunion Island. The interactions between a set of environmental and epidemic variables associated with disease expression and 184 different factor combinations were investigated to determine the parameters needed to explain Asiatic citrus canker (ACC) disease expression. Area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC), inoculation date (Id), fruit and leaf age ratings (FAR and LAR), and number of days during the first 2 weeks postinoculation for which the temperature was less than 14 degrees C (T(min)) or more than 28 degrees C (T(max)) were retained by principal component analysis and canonical correlation analysis as the most meaningful epidemic and environmental variables, respectively. AUDPC as the strongest dependent variable and combinations of the environmental variables as independent variables were used in multiple regression analyses. Tissue age rating at the time of infection was a good predictor for disease resulting from spray inoculation on fruits and leaves and also on fruits following a wound inoculation. Temperature, as expressed by T(min) or T(max), was also a significant factor in determining disease development described by AUDPC. Mature green stems were highly susceptible after wounding, similarly to leaves, but buds and leaf scars expressed the lowest susceptibility. These variations in disease expression according to the tissues will have different impacts on ACC epidemiology.

Alternaria brown spot, caused by Alternaria alternata pv. citri, affects many tangerines and their hybrids, causing loss of immature leaves and fruit and reducing the marketability of the remaining fruit. Conidial production of A. alternata was greatest on mature leaves moistened and maintained at near 100% relative humidity (RH) for 24 h, whereas leaves that had been soaked or maintained at moderate RH produced few conidia. Conidial release from filter paper cultures and infected leaves was studied in a computer-controlled environmental chamber. Release of large numbers of conidia was triggered from both substrates by sudden drops in RH or by simulated rainfall events. Vibration induced release of low numbers of conidia, but red/infrared irradiation had no effect. In field studies from 1994 to 1996, air sampling with a 7-day recording volumetric spore trap indicated that conidia were present throughout the year with periodic large peaks. The number of conidia captured was not closely related to rainfall amounts or average wind speed, but was weakly related to the duration of leaf wetness. Likewise, disease severity on trap plants placed in the field weekly during 1995 to 1996 was not closely related to conidial numbers or rainfall amounts, but was weakly related to leaf wetness duration. Sufficient inoculum appears to be available to allow infection to occur throughout the year whenever susceptible host tissue and moisture are available.

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Abstract. Invasive plant pathogens are increasing with international trade and travel, with damaging environmental and economic consequences. Recent examples include tree diseases such as sudden oak death in the Western United States and ash dieback in Europe. To control an invading pathogen it is crucial that newly infected sites are quickly detected so that measures can be implemented to control the epidemic. However, since sampling resources are often limited, not all locations can be inspected and locations must be prioritized for surveying. Existing approaches to achieve this are often species specific and rely on detailed data collection and parameterization, which is difficult, especially when new arrivals are unanticipated. Consequently regulatory sampling responses are often ad hoc and developed without due consideration of epidemiology, leading to the suboptimal deployment of expensive sampling resources. We introduce a flexible risk-based sampling method that is pathogen generic and enables available information to be utilized to develop epidemiologically informed sampling programs for virtually any biologically relevant plant pathogen. By targeting risk we aim to inform sampling schemes that identify high-impact locations that can be subsequently treated in order to reduce inoculum in the landscape. This ''damage limitation'' is often the initial management objective following the first discovery of a new invader. Risk at each location is determined by the product of the basic reproductive number (R 0 ), as a measure of local epidemic size, and the probability of infection. We illustrate how the risk estimates can be used to prioritize a survey by weighting a random sample so that the highest-risk locations have the highest probability of selection. We demonstrate and test the method using a high-quality spatially and temporally resolved data set on Huanglongbing disease (HLB) in Florida, USA. We show that even when available epidemiological information is relatively minimal, the method has strong predictive value and can result in highly effective targeted surveying plans.

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