In Europe, sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) are typical Mediterranean faunal elements of low expansivity, which are widely distributed in more than 20 species in many parts of Southern Europe. A few species have extended their distribution to the northwest invading extramediterranean regions (Western, Eastern Europe); any occurrence in Central Europe north of the Alps was excluded until recently. Since 1999 sandflies have been found in several parts in Germany and in Belgium; originally these records were ascribed to climate change and global warming. Meanwhile, the more likely assumption is that sandflies have always, probably since the Holocene climate optima (ca. 4500 and 2500 B.C.), been in Central Europe sporadically to where they have come as immigrants (or re-immigrants) from Mediterranean refugial areas. It is, however, without question that global warming will lead to an extension of the distributional areas of sandflies. A climatological analysis of the localities where sandflies have been found in Central Europe has revealed that temperature is the key factor. A comparison of climatological parameters in sandfly-localities with the climatic conditions in Austria (where sandflies have not yet been found) has shown that an increase of temperature by 1 degrees C in January (Ph. mascittii) or 1 degrees C in July (Ph. neglectus), respectively, would lead to suitable conditions for the occurrence of sandflies in certain parts of Austria. (The scenarios for an increase of temperature until the end of the century vary between 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C; 3 degrees C seem to be realistic also for critical climatologists.) Leishmaniae certainly do not occur in Central Europe primarily, but an increasing number of infections in humans, as well as in animals, acquired in Central Europe has been registered. It is highly likely that these infections are due to sandflies which have been infected by sucking blood on infected dogs. Dogs infected with Leishmania and presenting a variety of clinical symptoms are frequently brought by compassionate tourists from Mediterranean countries - often illegally - to Central Europe. Meanwhile, a flourishing market for dogs of miserable appearance suffering from leishmaniosis has been developed by profit-oriented opportunists in Mediterranean countries. With respect to the serious course of visceral leishmaniosis (particularly in infants and in immunocompromised persons) this dangerous condition merits intensive attention. Phleboviruses have not been found in Central Europe, so far. However, in the course of global warming an establishment of biological cycles after an introduction of the pathogens, particularly if vertebrates other than humans can also act as reservoir hosts, seems possible.

This study assesses the impact of a changing climate on fish fauna by comparing the past mean state of fish assemblage to a possible future mean state. It is based on (1) local scale observations along an Inner-Alpine river called Mur, (2) an IPCC emission scenario (IS92a), implemented by atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3, and (3) a model-chain that links climate research to hydrobiology. The Mur River is still in a near-natural condition and water temperature in summer is the most important aquatic ecological constraint for fish distribution. The methodological strategy is (1) to use downscaled air temperature and precipitation scenarios for the first half of the twenty-first century, (2) to establish a model that simulates water temperature by means of air temperature and flow rate in order to generate water temperature scenarios, and (3) to evaluate the impact on fish communities using an ecological model that is driven by water temperature. This methodology links the response of fish fauna to an IPCC emission scenario and is to our knowledge an unprecedented approach. The downscaled IS92a scenarios show increased mean air temperatures during the whole year and increased precipitation totals during summer, but reduced totals for the rest of the annual cycle. These changes result in scenarios of increased water temperatures, an altered annual cycle of flow rate, and, in turn, a 70 m displacement in elevation of fish communities towards the river's head. This would enhance stress on species that rely on low water temperatures and coerce cyprinid species into advancing against retreating salmonids. Hyporhithral river sectors would turn into epipotamal sectors. Grayling (Thymallus thymallus) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), presently characteristic for the Mur River, would be superceded by other species. Native brown trout (Salmo trutta), already now under pressure of competition, may be at risk of losing its habitat in favour of invaders like the exotic rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), which are better adapted to higher water temperatures. Projected changes in fish communities suggest an adverse influence on salmonid sport fishing and a loss in its high economic value.