Abstract. In this study the resource base for EGS (enhanced geothermal systems) in Europe was quantified and economically constrained, applying a discounted cash-flow model to different techno-economic scenarios for future EGS in 2020EGS in , 2030EGS in , and 2050. Temperature is a critical parameter that controls the amount of thermal energy available in the subsurface. Therefore, the first step in assessing the European resource base for EGS is the construction of a subsurface temperature model of onshore Europe. Subsurface temperatures were computed to a depth of 10 km below ground level for a regular 3-D hexahedral grid with a horizontal resolution of 10 km and a vertical resolution of 250 m. Vertical conductive heat transport was considered as the main heat transfer mechanism. Surface temperature and basal heat flow were used as boundary conditions for the top and bottom of the model, respectively. If publicly available, the most recent and comprehensive regional temperature models, based on data from wells, were incorporated.With the modeled subsurface temperatures and future technical and economic scenarios, the technical potential and minimum levelized cost of energy (LCOE)
A resource assessment methodology has been developed to designate prospective high permeable clastic aquifers and to assess the amount of potential geothermal energy in the Netherlands. It builds from the wealth of deep subsurface data from oil and gas exploration and production which is publicly and digitally available. In the resource assessment various performance indicator maps have been produced for direct heat applications (greenhouse and spatial heating). These maps are based on detailed mapping of depth, thickness, porosity, permeability, temperature and transmissivity (methodology presented in other papers in this NJG issue). In the resource assessment analysis 14 lithostratigraphic units (clastic aquifers) have been considered, ranging in age from the Permian to the Cenozoic. Performance maps have been made which include a) the expected doublet power (MWth) to be retrieved; b) the number of houses or hectares that can be heated from one doublet; and c) a potential indicator map, which provides insight in subsurface suitability for specific applications from a techno-economic perspective. To obtain a nationwide overview of the resource potential in terms of recoverable geothermal energy, a progressive filtering approach was used from total heat content of the reservoirs (Heat In Place – HIP) via the heat that can potentially be recovered (Potential Recovery Heat – PRH) to energy maps taking into account a techno-economic performance evaluation (Recoverable Heat – RH). Results show that the HIP is approximately 820,000 PJ which is significantly more than previous estimates of around 90,000 PJ. This considerable increase in geothermal energy potential is the result of accurate geological mapping of key reservoir properties and the development of state-of-the-art techno-economic performance assessment tools that performs Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, for the previous estimates boundary conditions were set with the aim to compare the geothermal potential between different EU countries (Rijkers & Van Doorn, 1997). Taking into account techno-economic aspects, the RH is in the order of 85,000 PJ. This is equivalent to ~70% of the ultimate recoverable gas of the Slochteren Gas field. In total over 400 maps have been created or used as input for the resource assessment. Together, they provide comprehensive information for geothermal energy development from various stakeholder perspectives. The maps can be interactively assessed in the web-based portal ThermoGIS (www.thermogis.nl). This application complements existing subsurface information systems available in the Netherlands and supports the geothermal community in assessing the feasibility of a geothermal system on a regional scale.
Geothermal low enthalpy heat in non-magmatic areas can be produced by pumping hot water from aquifers at large depth (>1 km). Key parameters for aquifer performance are temperature, depth, thickness and permeability. Geothermal exploration in the Netherlands can benefit considerably from the wealth of oil and gas data; in many cases hydrocarbon reservoirs form the lateral equivalent of geothermal aquifers. In the past decades subsurface oil and gas data have been used to develop 3D models of the subsurface structure. These models have been used as a starting point for the mapping of geothermal reservoir geometries and its properties. A workflow was developed to map aquifer properties on a regional scale. Transmissivity maps and underlying uncertainty have been obtained for 20 geothermal aquifers. Of particular importance is to take into account corrections for maximum burial depth and the assessment of uncertainties. The mapping of transmissivity and temperature shows favorable aquifer conditions in the northern part of the Netherlands (Rotliegend aquifers), while in the western and southern parts of the Netherlands aquifers of the Triassic and Upper Cretaceous / Jurassic have high prospectivity. Despite the high transmissivity of the Cenozoic aquifers, the limited depth and temperature reduce the prospective geothermal area significantly.The results show a considerable remaining uncertainty of transmissivity values, due to lack of data and heterogeneous spatial data distribution.In part these uncertainties may be significantly reduced by adding well test results and facies parameters for the map interpolation in future work.For underexplored areas this bears a significant risk, but it can also result in much higher flowrates than originally expected, representing an upside in project performance.
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