Shorelines are continuously adjusting in response to the changing hydraulic and meteorological conditions. Storms that generate large waves and surge conditions can alter the nearshore topography and relocate the beach shorelines, often with substantial amounts of beach and dune erosion. Such storms pose a major threat to coastal developments for which the economic impact can be significant. The ability to predict the rate of erosion and, consequently the shoreline change, is important in making decisions regarding the planning and managing of the coastal regions. In general, the available methods for the prediction of beach and dune erosion are based on the assumption of post-storm equilibrium profile. In this approach it is assumed that, for a given set of wave and surge conditions, the entire beach reaches a steadystate, and that the volume of sand released from the dune is equal to the volume of sand required to establish this profile. Existing methods that are based on this concept include those developed by Edelman (1968, 1972), Vellinga (1982, 1983, 1986), Kriebel and Dean (1984), Sargent and Birkemeier (1985), and Kobayashi (1987).. The reliance of these methods on the assumption of steady-state condition limits their application to extreme events generated by severe storms. Generally, storms do not have sufficient duration or intensity, such that the beach profile attains equilibrium during the storm.
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