This study aims to examine the effect of fiscal stress (FS) on changes in social assistance expenditure budget (BBS) with legislature size (LS) as a moderator in local governments on the island of Sumatra. The sample used is 154 districts/cities with purposive sampling technique. Secondary data is taken from local government financial reports which have been audited by the Supreme Audit Agency of the Republic of Indonesia (BPK RI). The analytical method used in this research is Moderated Regression Analysis. The results of this study prove that FS affects changes in BBS and LS has an effect on changes in BBS. However, the LS does not moderate the effect of fiscal stress on changes in BBS.Keywords: surplus/deficit, regional budget politics, stewardship theory, special autonomy, social assistance spending
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji pengaruh perubahan anggaran pendapatan asli daerah (PAD), dana perimbangan (DP), dan sisa anggaran (SiLPA) terhadap perubahan anggaran belanja (PAB) pada pemerintah daerah. Data sekunder yang digunakan bersumber dari dokumen peraturan derah tentang perubahan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Daerah (APBD) di Indonesia yang diperoleh melalui internet untuk tahun anggaran 2013. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh kabupaten/kota dengan sampel sebanyak 70 pemerintah daerah, yang dipilih secara purposive dengan pencarian di Google. Pengujian hipotesis menggunakan model regresi linear berganda. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa PAD, DP, dan SiLPA secara sendiri-sendiri dan bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap perubahan anggaran belanja daerah. Implikasi terhadap riset berikutnya adalah perlunya dilakukan analisis mendalam tentang kebijakan perubahan anggaran belanja yang dikaitkan dengan anggaran pendapatan awal dan SiLPA karena adanya kecenderungan terjadi moral hazard dalam proses penentuan prioritas belanja daerah pada pejabat daerah.
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