A genuine measure of ex ante credit risk links borrower’s financial position with the odds of default. Comprehension of a borrower’s financial position is proxied by the derivatives of its filled financial statements, i.e., financial ratios. We identify statistically significant relationships between shortlisted financial ratios and subsequent default events and develop a probability of default (PD) model that assesses the likelihood of a borrower going into delinquency at a one-year horizon. We compare the PD model constructed against alternative measures of ex ante credit risk that are widely used in related literature on bank risk taking, i.e., credit quality groups (prudential reserve ratios) assigned to creditors by banks and the credit spreads in interest rates. We find that the PD model predicts default events more accurately at a horizon of one year compared to prudential reserve rates. We conclude that the measure of ex ante credit risk developed is feasible for estimating risk-taking behaviour by banks and analysing shifts in portfolio composition.
In the current situation in the field of competition, globalization and integration of the world economy a modern organization must be highly competitive, financially stable, with high adaptation to changes in internal and external environment. Sharp fluctuations in external conditions, particularly complicating the process of management, may lead the company to bankruptcy. Bankruptcy can be related to numerous credit and financial relations, and is characterized by such a state of an organization in which it is impossible to pay obligations. In a situation where the cash amount of liabilities exceeds a certain limit, individuals and legal entities are declared insolvent, that is bankrupt. At the same time they cease all activities, including commercial one. Managers experiencing financial difficulties can protect theirr organization from closing via initiation of bankruptcy proceedings, searching for opportunities to restore its solvency. This article presents a systematic form data on the effect of fraud in bankruptcy to change the balance sheet items and income statement of the organization. The article indicates the important role of accounting (financial) statements, which allow to timely evaluate the property and financial position of the organization, to design a successful forecast of its operation. Authors present a list of suspicious transactions that have a negative impact on the financial and economic state of bankruptcy, which is based on analysis of existing experiences of diagnosis of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy. The results can be used in the professional activity of managers and specialists, as well as a mechanism for improving diagnostic signs of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcies, in particular, for experts and arbitration managers.
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