We study a novel approach to information design in the standard traffic model of network congestion games. It captures the natural condition that the demand is unknown to the users of the network. A principal (e.g., a mobility service) commits to a signaling strategy, observes the realized demand and sends a (public) signal to agents (i.e., users of the network). Based on the induced belief about the demand, the users then form an equilibrium. We consider the algorithmic goal of the principal: Compute a signaling scheme that minimizes the expected total cost of the induced equilibrium. We concentrate on single-commodity networks and affine cost functions, for which we obtain the following results. First, we devise a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for the case that the demand can only take two values. It relies on several structural properties of the cost of the induced equilibrium as a function of the updated belief about the distribution of demands. We show that this function is piecewise linear for any number of demands, and monotonic for two demands. Second, we give a complete characterization of the graph structures for which it is optimal to fully reveal the information about the realized demand. This signaling scheme turns out to be optimal for all cost functions and probability distributions over demands if and only if the graph is series-parallel. Third, we propose an algorithm that computes the optimal signaling scheme for any number of demands whose time complexity is polynomial in the number of supports that occur in a Wardrop equilibrium for some demand. Finally, we conduct a computational study that tests this algorithm on real-world instances.
We consider a largely untapped potential for the improvement of traffic networks that is rooted in the inherent uncertainty of travel times. Travel times are subject to stochastic uncertainty resulting from various parameters such as weather condition, occurrences of road works, or traffic accidents. Large mobility services have an informational advantage over single network users as they are able to learn traffic conditions from data. A benevolent mobility service may use this informational advantage in order to steer the traffic equilibrium into a favorable direction. The resulting optimization problem is a task commonly referred to as signaling or Bayesian persuasion. Previous work has shown that the underlying signaling problem can be NP-hard to approximate within any non-trivial bounds, even for affine cost functions with stochastic offsets. In contrast, we show that in this case, the signaling problem is easy for many networks. We tightly characterize the class of single-commodity networks, in which full information revelation is always an optimal signaling strategy. Moreover, we construct a reduction from optimal signaling to computing an optimal collection of support vectors for the Wardrop equilibrium. For two states, this insight can be used to compute an optimal signaling scheme. The algorithm runs in polynomial time whenever the number of different supports resulting from any signal distribution is bounded to a polynomial in the input size. Using a cell decomposition technique, we extend the approach to a polynomial-time algorithm for multi-commodity parallel link networks with a constant number of commodities, even when we have a constant number of different states of nature.
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